MARA @ $12.48

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-15.4%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds3%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.06 / mid $0.07 · $600 this cycle

36.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

97%

Income / mo

$1,636

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$530

If assigned

+$23,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.04/share ($10,448 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $17.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	18d	+$0.51	$0.57 to $0.80	71%	54%
Up And Out	$18.02	18d	+$0.00	$-0.02 to $0.29	76%	66%
Ss Escape	$20.52	39d	+$0.24	$0.23 to $0.65	82%	77%
Reliable Up	$21.52	39d	-$0.06	$-0.11 to $0.36	84%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $124 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.24 / mid $0.26 · $2,400 this cycle

16.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$6,545

Annualized

64%

EV / cycle

+$1,612

If assigned

-$124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.80/share ($8,036 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $14.87.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	18d	+$0.40	$0.37 to $0.49	71%	53%
Up And Out	$15.02	18d	+$0.11	$0.04 to $0.18	74%	61%
Ss Escape	$17.02	39d	+$0.24	$0.12 to $0.36	81%	75%
Safety Up	$19.02	39d	-$0.24	$-0.43 to $-0.15	87%	85%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $7,824 (premium included).

Called-away odds29%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.47 / mid $0.49 · $4,700 this cycle

8.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

71%

Income / mo

$12,818

Annualized

125%

EV / cycle

+$2,444

If assigned

-$7,824

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.72/share ($7,155 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $13.83.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	18d	+$0.36	$0.30 to $0.39	71%	53%
Up And Out	$14.02	18d	+$0.07	$-0.03 to $0.07	74%	62%
Ss Escape	$16.02	39d	+$0.14	$-0.04 to $0.13	82%	77%
Safety Up	$19.02	39d	-$0.36	$-0.64 to $-0.41	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$15.02	39d	+$0.42	$0.27 to $0.43	78%	69%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $0.35 / mid $0.41 · $3,500 this cycle

32.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$3,281

Annualized

32%

EV / cycle

+$1,653

If assigned

+$20,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.75/share ($17,541 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $16.96.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	39d	+$0.19	$0.13 to $0.31	71%	55%
Ss Escape	$16.02	39d	+$0.38	$0.33 to $0.54	69%	51%
Safety Up	$17.02	39d	-$0.03	$-0.10 to $0.06	73%	60%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $19 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.21 / mid $0.26 · $2,100 this cycle

52.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,615

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$1,292

If assigned

+$44,576

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $3,076 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $1.06 / mid $1.08 · $10,600 this cycle

12.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$8,154

Annualized

79%

EV / cycle

+$4,084

If assigned

+$3,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-13 16:23 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.