MARA @ $12.44

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-15.7%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds3%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.06 / mid $0.07 · $600 this cycle

36.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

97%

Income / mo

$1,636

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$535

If assigned

+$23,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.08/share ($10,785 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $17.39.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	18d	+$0.51	$0.57 to $0.81	71%	54%
Up And Out	$17.56	18d	+$0.19	$0.20 to $0.46	74%	60%
Ss Escape	$20.56	39d	+$0.22	$0.22 to $0.61	82%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $124 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.24 / mid $0.26 · $2,400 this cycle

16.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$6,545

Annualized

64%

EV / cycle

+$1,656

If assigned

-$124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.83/share ($8,294 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $14.87.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	18d	+$0.40	$0.36 to $0.53	71%	53%
Up And Out	$15.06	18d	+$0.09	$0.02 to $0.18	74%	62%
Ss Escape	$17.06	39d	+$0.23	$0.10 to $0.36	81%	75%
Safety Up	$18.06	39d	-$0.03	$-0.19 to $0.10	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $7,824 (premium included).

Called-away odds29%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.47 / mid $0.49 · $4,700 this cycle

8.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

71%

Income / mo

$12,818

Annualized

125%

EV / cycle

+$2,550

If assigned

-$7,824

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.74/share ($7,385 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $13.83.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	18d	+$0.36	$0.29 to $0.39	71%	53%
Up And Out	$14.06	18d	+$0.05	$-0.05 to $0.05	74%	63%
Ss Escape	$16.06	39d	+$0.12	$-0.06 to $0.12	82%	77%
Safety Up	$19.06	39d	-$0.38	$-0.67 to $-0.42	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$15.06	39d	+$0.40	$0.25 to $0.42	78%	70%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $0.35 / mid $0.41 · $3,500 this cycle

32.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$3,281

Annualized

32%

EV / cycle

+$1,707

If assigned

+$20,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.79/share ($17,873 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $16.96.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	39d	+$0.19	$0.12 to $0.31	71%	55%
Ss Escape	$16.06	39d	+$0.36	$0.31 to $0.52	69%	52%
Safety Up	$17.06	39d	-$0.05	$-0.12 to $0.04	73%	60%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $19 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.21 / mid $0.26 · $2,100 this cycle

52.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,615

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$1,317

If assigned

+$44,576

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $3,076 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $1.06 / mid $1.08 · $10,600 this cycle

12.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$8,154

Annualized

80%

EV / cycle

+$4,227

If assigned

+$3,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-13 19:33 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.