MARA @ $12.26

DEEP DRAWDOWN
Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio
AccountU10001299
Shares10,000
Avg cost$14.75
Drawdown-16.9%
IV regimeHIGH
Writable100
Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.
Income playbook
Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾
Called-away odds6%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $16 CALL
24 Jul 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.06 / mid $0.07 · $600 this cycle
30.5%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
94%
Income / mo
$1,636
Annualized
16%
EV / cycle
+$392
If assigned
+$13,076
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.89/share ($8,897 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 8 at spot $16.38.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$16.0018d+$0.37$0.39 to $0.6269%54%
Up And Out$16.7418d+$0.07$0.07 to $0.2973%63%
Ss Escape$19.7439d+$0.03$0.01 to $0.3482%78%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾
Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $924 (premium included).
Called-away odds15%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $14 CALL
24 Jul 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.16 / mid $0.17 · $1,600 this cycle
18.3%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
85%
Income / mo
$4,364
Annualized
43%
EV / cycle
+$782
If assigned
-$924
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.76/share ($7,597 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $14.89.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$14.5018d+$0.32$0.28 to $0.4469%54%
Up And Out$15.2418d+$0.02$-0.05 to $0.1074%64%
Ss Escape$17.2439d+$0.16$0.05 to $0.2981%76%
Safety Up$18.2439d-$0.08$-0.23 to $0.0484%81%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
NormalBalanced risk and income▾
Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $12,924 (premium included).
Called-away odds35%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $13 CALL
24 Jul 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.46 / mid $0.48 · $4,600 this cycle
6.0%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
65%
Income / mo
$12,545
Annualized
124%
EV / cycle
+$1,280
If assigned
-$12,924
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.64/share ($6,393 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $13.37.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$13.0018d+$0.27$0.19 to $0.2668%53%
Up And Out$13.2418d+$0.15$0.06 to $0.1370%58%
Ss Escape$15.7439d+$0.03$-0.17 to $-0.0382%78%
Safety Up$18.7439d-$0.38$-0.69 to $-0.4991%91%
Reliable Up$14.7439d+$0.28$0.12 to $0.2378%72%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾
Called-away odds20%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $16 CALL
21 Aug 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.46 / mid $0.48 · $4,600 this cycle
30.5%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
80%
Income / mo
$3,538
Annualized
35%
EV / cycle
+$1,960
If assigned
+$17,076
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾
Called-away odds9%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $19 CALL
21 Aug 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.19 / mid $0.28 · $1,900 this cycle
55.0%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
91%
Income / mo
$1,462
Annualized
15%
EV / cycle
+$1,075
If assigned
+$44,376
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
NormalBalanced risk and income▾
Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $1,476 (premium included).
Called-away odds33%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $14 CALL
21 Aug 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.90 / mid $0.92 · $9,000 this cycle
14.2%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
67%
Income / mo
$6,923
Annualized
69%
EV / cycle
+$2,964
If assigned
+$1,476
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-13 22:13 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.