MARA @ $12.10

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-18.0%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.04 · $400 this cycle

36.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,200

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$314

If assigned

+$17,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.92/share ($9,228 total).

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	17d	+$0.43	-	69%	54%
Up And Out	$17.40	17d	+$0.07	-	74%	64%
Ss Escape	$20.90	45d	+$0.02	-	82%	79%
Safety Up	$21.40	45d	-$0.01	-	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,624 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.19 / mid $0.20 · $1,900 this cycle

15.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$5,700

Annualized

57%

EV / cycle

+$983

If assigned

-$5,624

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.71/share ($7,089 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $14.39.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	17d	+$0.34	$0.29 to $0.43	69%	54%
Up And Out	$14.40	17d	+$0.13	$0.06 to $0.20	71%	60%
Ss Escape	$17.40	45d	+$0.04	$-0.13 to $0.13	82%	79%
Safety Up	$18.90	45d	-$0.18	$-0.38 to $-0.10	87%	85%
Reliable Up	$16.90	45d	+$0.13	$-0.02 to $0.23	81%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $13,424 (premium included).

Called-away odds32%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.41 / mid $0.42 · $4,100 this cycle

7.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

68%

Income / mo

$12,300

Annualized

124%

EV / cycle

+$1,541

If assigned

-$13,424

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($6,307 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $13.36.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	17d	+$0.30	$0.23 to $0.31	69%	53%
Up And Out	$13.40	17d	+$0.10	$0.00 to $0.09	71%	60%
Ss Escape	$15.90	38d	+$0.01	$-0.19 to $-0.03	83%	79%
Safety Up	$18.90	45d	-$0.36	$-0.68 to $-0.44	90%	90%
Reliable Up	$14.90	45d	+$0.31	$0.13 to $0.29	78%	72%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.38 / mid $0.43 · $3,800 this cycle

28.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,677

Annualized

37%

EV / cycle

+$1,693

If assigned

+$11,276

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.50/share ($15,034 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $15.95.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.50	38d	+$0.19	$0.12 to $0.29	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$16.40	45d	+$0.02	$-0.09 to $0.14	73%	63%
Safety Up	$17.40	45d	-$0.38	$-0.54 to $-0.29	77%	70%
Reliable Up	$15.90	45d	+$0.11	$-0.01 to $0.25	71%	59%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $19 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.19 · $1,700 this cycle

57.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,342

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,019

If assigned

+$44,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.23/share ($22,299 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 26 at spot $19.55.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$19.00	45d	+$0.10	$0.08 to $0.38	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$18.90	45d	+$0.14	$0.13 to $0.43	69%	56%
Safety Up	$19.90	45d	-$0.14	$-0.17 to $0.07	73%	62%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $4,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.80 / mid $0.86 · $8,000 this cycle

11.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$7,742

Annualized

78%

EV / cycle

+$2,658

If assigned

-$4,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.21/share ($12,085 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $13.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	38d	+$0.15	$0.06 to $0.13	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$13.90	45d	+$0.06	$-0.11 to $0.01	71%	60%
Safety Up	$16.40	38d	-$0.73	$-0.98 to $-0.84	85%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-14 03:40 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.