MARA @ $12.15

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-17.6%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds6%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.11 · $400 this cycle

31.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

94%

Income / mo

$1,200

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$233

If assigned

+$12,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.83/share ($8,342 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 8 at spot $16.44.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	17d	+$0.39	$0.42 to $0.62	68%	54%
Up And Out	$16.85	17d	+$0.03	$0.01 to $0.23	73%	64%
Ss Escape	$19.85	38d	+$0.05	$0.01 to $0.35	82%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.21 · $2,000 this cycle

15.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$6,000

Annualized

60%

EV / cycle

+$928

If assigned

-$5,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.67/share ($6,749 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $14.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	17d	+$0.31	$0.27 to $0.39	68%	54%
Up And Out	$14.35	17d	+$0.16	$0.10 to $0.22	70%	59%
Ss Escape	$16.85	38d	+$0.09	$-0.05 to $0.16	81%	77%
Safety Up	$17.85	38d	-$0.10	$-0.26 to $-0.05	85%	82%
Reliable Up	$16.85	45d	+$0.15	$0.00 to $0.22	80%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $13,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.42 / mid $0.43 · $4,200 this cycle

7.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$12,600

Annualized

126%

EV / cycle

+$1,358

If assigned

-$13,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.60/share ($6,011 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $13.36.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	17d	+$0.28	$0.21 to $0.28	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.35	17d	+$0.13	$0.04 to $0.11	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$15.85	38d	+$0.01	$-0.18 to $-0.04	83%	79%
Safety Up	$18.85	38d	-$0.34	$-0.63 to $-0.43	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$14.85	38d	+$0.29	$0.15 to $0.27	79%	72%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.42 / mid $0.44 · $4,200 this cycle

31.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,316

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$1,796

If assigned

+$16,676

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.69/share ($16,867 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $16.48.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	45d	-$0.15	$-0.30 to $-0.03	68%	56%
Ss Escape	$14.85	45d	+$0.13	$-0.04 to $0.31	61%	46%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $19 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.25 · $1,700 this cycle

56.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,342

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$966

If assigned

+$44,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.23/share ($22,258 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 26 at spot $19.54.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$19.00	45d	-$0.20	$-0.26 to $0.13	68%	57%
Ss Escape	$17.85	45d	+$0.02	$-0.03 to $0.43	63%	49%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $4,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.80 / mid $1.08 · $8,000 this cycle

11.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$7,742

Annualized

78%

EV / cycle

+$2,236

If assigned

-$4,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.24/share ($12,361 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $13.87.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	38d	+$0.06	$-0.08 to $0.02	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$13.35	38d	+$0.11	$-0.02 to $0.08	68%	53%
Safety Up	$16.35	38d	-$0.78	$-1.06 to $-0.90	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-14 21:40 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.