MARA @ $12.02

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-18.6%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.05 · $400 this cycle

33.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,333

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$307

If assigned

+$12,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.88/share ($8,780 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $16.44.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	16d	+$0.41	$0.48 to $0.66	69%	54%
Up And Out	$16.48	16d	+$0.19	$0.23 to $0.41	72%	60%
Ss Escape	$19.98	37d	+$0.10	$0.12 to $0.39	83%	80%
Reliable Up	$20.98	37d	-$0.07	$-0.07 to $0.20	86%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,624 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.19 / mid $0.20 · $1,900 this cycle

16.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$6,333

Annualized

64%

EV / cycle

+$1,146

If assigned

-$5,624

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.71/share ($7,104 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $14.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	16d	+$0.33	$0.30 to $0.44	69%	54%
Up And Out	$14.48	16d	+$0.11	$0.05 to $0.20	72%	61%
Ss Escape	$17.48	44d	+$0.02	$-0.16 to $0.11	82%	79%
Safety Up	$17.98	37d	-$0.08	$-0.25 to $0.01	86%	83%
Reliable Up	$16.98	44d	+$0.15	$0.00 to $0.25	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $13,724 (premium included).

Called-away odds30%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.38 / mid $0.40 · $3,800 this cycle

8.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

70%

Income / mo

$12,667

Annualized

128%

EV / cycle

+$1,578

If assigned

-$13,724

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($6,327 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $13.36.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	16d	+$0.29	$0.22 to $0.31	69%	53%
Up And Out	$13.48	16d	+$0.08	$-0.02 to $0.07	72%	62%
Ss Escape	$15.98	37d	+$0.00	$-0.20 to $-0.02	84%	80%
Safety Up	$17.98	37d	-$0.27	$-0.53 to $-0.31	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$14.98	44d	+$0.34	$0.18 to $0.35	79%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 37 DTE · bid $0.43 / mid $0.45 · $4,300 this cycle

33.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$3,486

Annualized

35%

EV / cycle

+$2,207

If assigned

+$16,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.71/share ($17,092 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 21 at spot $16.46.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	44d	+$0.05	$-0.03 to $0.17	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$15.98	44d	+$0.06	$-0.02 to $0.18	69%	56%
Safety Up	$16.98	44d	-$0.40	$-0.54 to $-0.31	73%	64%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $19 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 37 DTE · bid $0.18 / mid $0.19 · $1,800 this cycle

58.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,459

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$1,179

If assigned

+$44,276

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.26/share ($22,559 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 26 at spot $19.55.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$19.00	44d	+$0.07	$0.06 to $0.39	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$18.98	44d	+$0.08	$0.06 to $0.40	70%	56%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,024 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.75 / mid $0.83 · $7,500 this cycle

12.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$7,500

Annualized

76%

EV / cycle

+$2,077

If assigned

-$5,024

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.23/share ($12,312 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $13.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	37d	+$0.14	$0.04 to $0.12	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$13.48	37d	+$0.15	$0.05 to $0.12	70%	55%
Safety Up	$16.48	44d	-$0.66	$-0.96 to $-0.78	83%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-15 03:41 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.