MARA @ $12.35

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-16.3%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds7%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.06 / mid $0.12 · $600 this cycle

25.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

93%

Income / mo

$2,000

Annualized

20%

EV / cycle

+$362

If assigned

+$8,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.75/share ($7,497 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $15.93.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.50	16d	+$0.30	$0.31 to $0.47	67%	54%
Up And Out	$16.16	16d	+$0.05	$0.02 to $0.18	72%	62%
Ss Escape	$19.16	37d	+$0.05	$-0.01 to $0.21	83%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,624 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.19 / mid $0.21 · $1,900 this cycle

13.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$6,333

Annualized

62%

EV / cycle

+$733

If assigned

-$5,624

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.64/share ($6,384 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $14.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	16d	+$0.25	$0.20 to $0.33	67%	53%
Up And Out	$14.65	16d	+$0.01	$-0.08 to $0.05	72%	64%
Ss Escape	$16.66	37d	+$0.15	$0.02 to $0.21	81%	77%
Safety Up	$17.66	37d	-$0.06	$-0.22 to $-0.02	85%	82%
Reliable Up	$16.66	44d	+$0.19	$0.05 to $0.26	80%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $13,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.43 / mid $0.45 · $4,300 this cycle

5.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$14,333

Annualized

141%

EV / cycle

+$1,083

If assigned

-$13,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.57/share ($5,688 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $13.37.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	16d	+$0.22	$0.14 to $0.21	67%	53%
Up And Out	$13.15	16d	+$0.14	$0.04 to $0.12	68%	56%
Ss Escape	$15.65	37d	+$0.06	$-0.13 to $-0.00	82%	78%
Safety Up	$17.66	30d	-$0.41	$-0.75 to $-0.53	90%	90%
Reliable Up	$14.65	37d	+$0.33	$0.18 to $0.29	78%	71%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 37 DTE · bid $0.44 / mid $0.62 · $4,400 this cycle

29.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$3,568

Annualized

35%

EV / cycle

+$1,851

If assigned

+$16,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.66/share ($16,586 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $16.45.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	44d	-$0.36	$-0.56 to $-0.25	66%	56%
Ss Escape	$15.65	44d	+$0.12	$0.01 to $0.22	67%	53%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds13%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.16 / mid $0.22 · $1,600 this cycle

37.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

87%

Income / mo

$1,600

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$395

If assigned

+$24,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.98/share ($19,784 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $17.52.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	37d	-$0.14	$-0.29 to $0.06	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$16.66	44d	+$0.08	$-0.10 to $0.36	68%	54%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $4,624 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.79 / mid $0.90 · $7,900 this cycle

9.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$7,900

Annualized

78%

EV / cycle

+$1,857

If assigned

-$4,624

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.37/share ($13,679 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $13.88.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	37d	-$0.09	$-0.31 to $-0.18	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$13.15	37d	+$0.05	$-0.16 to $-0.03	67%	51%
Safety Up	$15.15	37d	-$0.66	$-0.95 to $-0.78	78%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-15 21:41 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.