MARA @ $12.24

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-17.0%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.06 · $400 this cycle

26.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,500

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$271

If assigned

+$7,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.74/share ($7,429 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $15.86.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.50	15d	+$0.38	$0.42 to $0.58	69%	54%
Up And Out	$16.26	15d	+$0.06	$0.06 to $0.23	74%	64%
Ss Escape	$19.26	36d	+$0.13	$0.11 to $0.36	83%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,724 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.18 / mid $0.18 · $1,800 this cycle

14.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$6,750

Annualized

67%

EV / cycle

+$1,086

If assigned

-$5,724

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($6,314 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $14.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	15d	+$0.32	$0.28 to $0.42	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.76	15d	+$0.01	$-0.09 to $0.07	75%	66%
Ss Escape	$17.26	43d	+$0.06	$-0.13 to $0.14	82%	78%
Safety Up	$18.76	36d	-$0.15	$-0.36 to $-0.09	88%	86%
Reliable Up	$16.76	43d	+$0.18	$0.01 to $0.26	80%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $13,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds32%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.40 / mid $0.42 · $4,000 this cycle

6.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

68%

Income / mo

$15,000

Annualized

149%

EV / cycle

+$1,638

If assigned

-$13,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.56/share ($5,617 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $13.36.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	15d	+$0.29	$0.21 to $0.29	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.26	15d	+$0.17	$0.08 to $0.16	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$15.76	36d	+$0.06	$-0.14 to $0.02	83%	79%
Safety Up	$18.76	36d	-$0.29	$-0.59 to $-0.36	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$15.26	43d	+$0.21	$0.01 to $0.17	79%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.45 / mid $0.46 · $4,500 this cycle

30.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,750

Annualized

37%

EV / cycle

+$2,238

If assigned

+$16,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.67/share ($16,674 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $16.47.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	43d	+$0.05	$-0.04 to $0.15	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$15.76	43d	+$0.16	$0.08 to $0.28	68%	53%
Safety Up	$16.76	43d	-$0.30	$-0.42 to $-0.22	72%	62%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $19 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.18 · $1,500 this cycle

55.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,250

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$881

If assigned

+$43,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.20/share ($22,003 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 24 at spot $19.54.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$19.00	43d	+$0.07	$0.03 to $0.40	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$18.76	43d	+$0.18	$0.16 to $0.53	69%	55%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $1,076 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.86 / mid $0.89 · $8,600 this cycle

14.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$7,167

Annualized

71%

EV / cycle

+$3,093

If assigned

+$1,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.35/share ($13,505 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 13 at spot $14.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	43d	+$0.04	$-0.08 to $0.02	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$13.76	43d	+$0.15	$0.04 to $0.14	68%	53%
Safety Up	$16.76	43d	-$0.83	$-1.11 to $-0.93	82%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-16 03:41 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.