MARA @ $12.09

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-18.1%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 15 DTE · bid $0.07 / mid $0.26 · $700 this cycle

36.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,400

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$552

If assigned

+$18,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.20/share ($12,003 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $17.00.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	22d	+$0.07	$0.05 to $0.34	67%	54%
Ss Escape	$18.41	36d	+$0.13	$0.11 to $0.46	77%	69%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $6,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.12 / mid $0.15 · $1,200 this cycle

15.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$4,500

Annualized

45%

EV / cycle

+$530

If assigned

-$6,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($6,282 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $14.39.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	15d	+$0.27	$0.21 to $0.36	67%	53%
Up And Out	$14.41	15d	+$0.05	$-0.03 to $0.13	70%	60%
Ss Escape	$16.91	36d	+$0.11	$-0.02 to $0.20	82%	78%
Safety Up	$17.91	36d	-$0.07	$-0.23 to $0.01	85%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $14,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds30%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.30 / mid $0.30 · $3,000 this cycle

7.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

70%

Income / mo

$11,250

Annualized

113%

EV / cycle

+$937

If assigned

-$14,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.56/share ($5,591 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $13.36.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	15d	+$0.24	$0.15 to $0.24	67%	53%
Up And Out	$13.41	15d	+$0.03	$-0.09 to $0.01	71%	61%
Ss Escape	$15.91	36d	+$0.03	$-0.17 to $-0.01	83%	80%
Safety Up	$16.91	36d	-$0.13	$-0.36 to $-0.18	87%	85%
Reliable Up	$14.91	36d	+$0.26	$0.10 to $0.24	79%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.38 / mid $0.43 · $3,800 this cycle

32.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$3,167

Annualized

32%

EV / cycle

+$1,751

If assigned

+$16,276

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.71/share ($17,103 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $16.47.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	43d	-$0.31	$-0.48 to $-0.18	67%	56%
Ss Escape	$15.41	43d	+$0.01	$-0.13 to $0.16	65%	51%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.24 · $2,000 this cycle

48.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$1,667

Annualized

17%

EV / cycle

+$1,167

If assigned

+$34,476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.07/share ($20,665 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 24 at spot $18.52.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$18.00	43d	-$0.37	$-0.48 to $-0.03	67%	56%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $24 (premium included).

Called-away odds31%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.75 / mid $0.80 · $7,500 this cycle

15.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

69%

Income / mo

$6,250

Annualized

63%

EV / cycle

+$2,421

If assigned

-$24

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.39/share ($13,856 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 14 at spot $14.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	43d	-$0.25	$-0.48 to $-0.29	66%	55%
Ss Escape	$13.41	43d	+$0.06	$-0.14 to $0.04	64%	49%
Safety Up	$15.41	43d	-$0.73	$-1.04 to $-0.81	74%	69%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-16 21:40 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.