MARA @ $11.40

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-22.7%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds3%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.03 / mid $0.04 · $300 this cycle

31.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

97%

Income / mo

$1,286

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$242

If assigned

+$2,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.75/share ($7,464 total).

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	14d	+$0.43	-	70%	54%
Up And Out	$15.60	14d	+$0.13	-	73%	62%
Ss Escape	$19.59	35d	+$0.02	-	86%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $15,924 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.16 / mid $0.17 · $1,600 this cycle

14.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$6,857

Annualized

73%

EV / cycle

+$994

If assigned

-$15,924

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.59/share ($5,933 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $13.36.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	14d	+$0.34	$0.30 to $0.45	69%	53%
Up And Out	$13.60	14d	+$0.06	$-0.03 to $0.13	74%	64%
Ss Escape	$16.59	35d	+$0.01	$-0.14 to $0.09	85%	83%
Safety Up	$17.59	35d	-$0.14	$-0.32 to $-0.07	88%	87%
Reliable Up	$16.09	42d	+$0.10	$-0.05 to $0.20	83%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $23,624 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.39 / mid $0.41 · $3,900 this cycle

5.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$16,714

Annualized

178%

EV / cycle

+$1,616

If assigned

-$23,624

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.52/share ($5,229 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $12.33.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.00	14d	+$0.30	$0.22 to $0.30	69%	53%
Up And Out	$12.60	14d	+$0.02	$-0.11 to $-0.01	75%	65%
Ss Escape	$15.10	42d	+$0.02	$-0.21 to $-0.03	84%	81%
Safety Up	$16.59	35d	-$0.20	$-0.47 to $-0.27	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$14.10	42d	+$0.23	$0.03 to $0.18	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.43 / mid $0.44 · $4,300 this cycle

31.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$3,686

Annualized

39%

EV / cycle

+$2,242

If assigned

+$6,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.55/share ($15,502 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $15.46.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	42d	+$0.11	$0.05 to $0.22	70%	55%
Up And Out	$15.10	42d	+$0.06	$-0.00 to $0.16	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$15.10	42d	+$0.06	$-0.00 to $0.16	70%	56%
Safety Up	$16.09	42d	-$0.31	$-0.42 to $-0.26	75%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.17 · $1,500 this cycle

57.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,286

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$939

If assigned

+$33,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.08/share ($20,797 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 25 at spot $18.52.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$18.00	42d	+$0.16	$0.17 to $0.49	70%	56%
Up And Out	$18.09	42d	+$0.11	$0.12 to $0.44	71%	57%
Ss Escape	$18.09	42d	+$0.11	$0.12 to $0.44	71%	57%
Safety Up	$18.59	42d	-$0.09	$-0.09 to $0.20	72%	60%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $9,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.84 / mid $0.85 · $8,400 this cycle

14.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$7,200

Annualized

77%

EV / cycle

+$3,140

If assigned

-$9,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.24/share ($12,377 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 12 at spot $13.37.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	42d	+$0.08	$-0.01 to $0.07	70%	55%
Up And Out	$13.10	42d	+$0.04	$-0.06 to $0.02	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$13.10	42d	+$0.04	$-0.06 to $0.02	70%	56%
Safety Up	$16.09	42d	-$0.82	$-1.08 to $-0.92	85%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-17 03:41 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.