MARA @ $11.69

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-20.7%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.04 · $400 this cycle

36.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,200

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$307

If assigned

+$12,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.98/share ($9,814 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 8 at spot $16.44.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	17d	+$0.46	$0.50 to $0.74	69%	54%
Up And Out	$16.81	17d	+$0.09	$0.07 to $0.32	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$19.31	38d	+$0.01	$-0.03 to $0.38	80%	76%
Safety Up	$19.31	31d	-$0.02	$-0.05 to $0.31	82%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $10,424 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.21 / mid $0.22 · $2,100 this cycle

15.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$6,300

Annualized

66%

EV / cycle

+$1,059

If assigned

-$10,424

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.75/share ($7,513 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $13.90.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	17d	+$0.36	$0.31 to $0.43	69%	54%
Up And Out	$13.81	17d	+$0.22	$0.16 to $0.29	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$15.81	31d	+$0.03	$-0.12 to $0.09	81%	76%
Safety Up	$16.81	31d	-$0.18	$-0.37 to $-0.14	85%	82%
Reliable Up	$15.81	38d	+$0.16	$0.01 to $0.24	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $18,024 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.45 / mid $0.47 · $4,500 this cycle

6.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$13,500

Annualized

140%

EV / cycle

+$1,610

If assigned

-$18,024

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.67/share ($6,673 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $12.87.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	17d	+$0.32	$0.24 to $0.32	69%	54%
Up And Out	$12.81	17d	+$0.19	$0.09 to $0.17	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$14.81	38d	+$0.07	$-0.14 to $0.02	81%	76%
Safety Up	$16.81	31d	-$0.37	$-0.68 to $-0.47	90%	88%
Reliable Up	$13.81	31d	+$0.25	$0.09 to $0.21	77%	69%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.43 / mid $0.44 · $4,300 this cycle

28.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$4,161

Annualized

43%

EV / cycle

+$2,049

If assigned

+$6,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.50/share ($14,993 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $15.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	38d	+$0.07	$-0.01 to $0.17	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$14.81	38d	+$0.17	$0.08 to $0.27	68%	54%
Safety Up	$16.31	38d	-$0.42	$-0.56 to $-0.38	75%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

28 Aug 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.23 · $2,000 this cycle

53.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$1,579

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$1,105

If assigned

+$34,476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $8,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.90 / mid $0.91 · $9,000 this cycle

11.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$8,710

Annualized

91%

EV / cycle

+$3,010

If assigned

-$8,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.20/share ($12,022 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $13.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	38d	+$0.06	$-0.06 to $0.02	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$12.81	38d	+$0.15	$0.03 to $0.12	68%	53%
Safety Up	$16.31	38d	-$0.87	$-1.20 to $-1.02	87%	85%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-21 03:39 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.