MARA @ $11.82

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-19.9%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.04 · $400 this cycle

35.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,200

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$282

If assigned

+$12,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.86/share ($8,648 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 8 at spot $16.46.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	17d	+$0.42	$0.45 to $0.65	68%	54%
Up And Out	$16.68	17d	+$0.13	$0.13 to $0.34	72%	62%
Ss Escape	$19.18	38d	+$0.05	$0.04 to $0.35	80%	76%
Safety Up	$19.18	31d	-$0.01	$-0.02 to $0.26	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $6,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.15 · $1,400 this cycle

18.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$4,200

Annualized

43%

EV / cycle

+$654

If assigned

-$6,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.70/share ($7,004 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $14.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	17d	+$0.34	$0.30 to $0.44	68%	54%
Up And Out	$14.68	17d	+$0.06	$-0.01 to $0.12	72%	63%
Ss Escape	$16.18	31d	+$0.11	$-0.00 to $0.20	79%	74%
Safety Up	$17.18	31d	-$0.13	$-0.27 to $-0.05	83%	80%
Reliable Up	$16.18	38d	+$0.26	$0.16 to $0.37	79%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $18,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.43 / mid $0.46 · $4,300 this cycle

5.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$12,900

Annualized

133%

EV / cycle

+$979

If assigned

-$18,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.59/share ($5,876 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $12.86.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	17d	+$0.29	$0.22 to $0.27	68%	54%
Up And Out	$13.18	17d	+$0.01	$-0.10 to $-0.03	73%	65%
Ss Escape	$14.68	31d	+$0.00	$-0.18 to $-0.06	81%	77%
Safety Up	$18.68	38d	-$0.39	$-0.70 to $-0.49	93%	92%
Reliable Up	$13.68	31d	+$0.27	$0.13 to $0.23	76%	68%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.30 / mid $0.35 · $3,000 this cycle

31.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$2,903

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$1,090

If assigned

+$10,476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.52/share ($15,165 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $16.01.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.50	38d	+$0.01	$-0.10 to $0.12	68%	55%
Ss Escape	$15.18	38d	+$0.15	$0.05 to $0.27	67%	53%
Safety Up	$16.18	38d	-$0.26	$-0.39 to $-0.18	71%	62%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.16 · $1,400 this cycle

52.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,355

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$804

If assigned

+$33,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.92/share ($19,231 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 22 at spot $18.50.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$18.00	38d	+$0.01	$0.00 to $0.34	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$17.68	38d	+$0.15	$0.16 to $0.51	68%	54%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $8,924 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.86 / mid $0.88 · $8,600 this cycle

10.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$8,323

Annualized

86%

EV / cycle

+$2,189

If assigned

-$8,924

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.15/share ($11,547 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $13.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	38d	+$0.00	$-0.14 to $-0.06	68%	55%
Ss Escape	$12.68	38d	+$0.15	$0.01 to $0.10	66%	51%
Safety Up	$16.18	38d	-$0.84	$-1.18 to $-1.00	86%	84%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-21 12:01 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.