MARA @ $12.12

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-17.8%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.04 · $400 this cycle

36.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,333

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$321

If assigned

+$17,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.93/share ($9,317 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $16.96.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	16d	+$0.51	$0.58 to $0.76	69%	54%
Up And Out	$17.38	16d	+$0.12	$0.13 to $0.34	73%	64%
Ss Escape	$20.38	37d	+$0.04	$0.04 to $0.36	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,424 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.21 / mid $0.21 · $2,100 this cycle

15.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$7,000

Annualized

70%

EV / cycle

+$1,159

If assigned

-$5,424

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.72/share ($7,199 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $14.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	16d	+$0.40	$0.35 to $0.50	69%	54%
Up And Out	$14.88	16d	+$0.02	$-0.07 to $0.08	74%	66%
Ss Escape	$16.38	30d	+$0.03	$-0.11 to $0.11	81%	76%
Safety Up	$17.88	37d	-$0.14	$-0.34 to $-0.05	85%	83%
Reliable Up	$16.38	37d	+$0.13	$-0.02 to $0.23	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $13,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds32%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.42 / mid $0.44 · $4,200 this cycle

7.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

68%

Income / mo

$14,000

Annualized

141%

EV / cycle

+$1,532

If assigned

-$13,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.64/share ($6,422 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $13.38.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	16d	+$0.35	$0.28 to $0.37	69%	54%
Up And Out	$13.38	16d	+$0.19	$0.10 to $0.18	71%	60%
Ss Escape	$15.38	37d	+$0.06	$-0.16 to $0.01	81%	76%
Safety Up	$17.88	30d	-$0.40	$-0.70 to $-0.49	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$14.88	37d	+$0.21	$0.03 to $0.18	79%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.40 / mid $0.43 · $4,000 this cycle

27.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$4,000

Annualized

40%

EV / cycle

+$1,949

If assigned

+$11,476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.50/share ($15,015 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $15.98.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.50	37d	+$0.14	$0.06 to $0.22	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$15.38	37d	+$0.19	$0.12 to $0.28	69%	54%
Safety Up	$16.88	37d	-$0.38	$-0.51 to $-0.36	75%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds6%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $19 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.12 / mid $0.12 · $1,200 this cycle

56.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

94%

Income / mo

$1,200

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$853

If assigned

+$43,676

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.08/share ($20,768 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 21 at spot $19.56.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$19.00	37d	+$0.20	$0.23 to $0.51	70%	56%
Up And Out	$19.38	37d	+$0.05	$0.06 to $0.32	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$19.38	37d	+$0.05	$0.06 to $0.32	71%	59%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $4,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.84 / mid $0.88 · $8,400 this cycle

11.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$8,400

Annualized

84%

EV / cycle

+$2,655

If assigned

-$4,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.21/share ($12,118 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $13.91.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	37d	+$0.11	$0.01 to $0.08	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$13.38	37d	+$0.16	$0.06 to $0.14	68%	54%
Safety Up	$16.38	37d	-$0.80	$-1.11 to $-0.92	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-22 03:39 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.