MARA @ $12.46

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-15.5%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.05 · $400 this cycle

32.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,333

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$271

If assigned

+$17,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.93/share ($9,301 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $16.94.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	16d	+$0.37	$0.39 to $0.62	68%	54%
Up And Out	$17.04	16d	+$0.09	$0.08 to $0.31	70%	60%
Ss Escape	$19.04	30d	+$0.16	$0.15 to $0.45	79%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $724 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.18 / mid $0.18 · $1,800 this cycle

16.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$6,000

Annualized

59%

EV / cycle

+$999

If assigned

-$724

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.76/share ($7,596 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $14.92.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	16d	+$0.31	$0.23 to $0.39	68%	54%
Up And Out	$15.04	16d	+$0.04	$-0.06 to $0.10	71%	61%
Ss Escape	$16.54	30d	+$0.12	$-0.01 to $0.21	79%	73%
Safety Up	$17.04	30d	-$0.00	$-0.14 to $0.08	81%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $8,724 (premium included).

Called-away odds30%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.38 / mid $0.40 · $3,800 this cycle

8.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

70%

Income / mo

$12,667

Annualized

124%

EV / cycle

+$1,374

If assigned

-$8,724

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.68/share ($6,802 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $13.93.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	16d	+$0.28	$0.17 to $0.26	67%	54%
Up And Out	$14.04	16d	+$0.02	$-0.15 to $-0.02	71%	62%
Ss Escape	$15.54	30d	+$0.05	$-0.16 to $-0.00	80%	75%
Safety Up	$17.04	30d	-$0.27	$-0.55 to $-0.35	86%	84%
Reliable Up	$15.04	30d	+$0.17	$-0.01 to $0.14	77%	71%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.38 / mid $0.40 · $3,800 this cycle

28.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$3,800

Annualized

37%

EV / cycle

+$1,834

If assigned

+$16,276

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.59/share ($15,863 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $16.48.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	37d	-$0.34	$-0.56 to $-0.23	66%	55%
Ss Escape	$15.54	37d	+$0.21	$0.10 to $0.34	67%	51%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.18 / mid $0.20 · $1,800 this cycle

44.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$1,800

Annualized

18%

EV / cycle

+$1,083

If assigned

+$34,276

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.91/share ($19,142 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $18.49.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$18.00	37d	-$0.41	$-0.52 to $-0.09	66%	56%
Ss Escape	$17.54	37d	+$0.21	$0.16 to $0.50	67%	52%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $476 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.80 / mid $0.83 · $8,000 this cycle

12.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$8,000

Annualized

78%

EV / cycle

+$2,641

If assigned

+$476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.29/share ($12,871 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $14.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	37d	-$0.28	$-0.55 to $-0.36	66%	55%
Ss Escape	$13.54	37d	+$0.21	$0.06 to $0.19	66%	50%
Safety Up	$15.04	37d	-$0.75	$-1.16 to $-0.90	71%	66%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-22 21:53 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.