MARA @ $12.39

DEEP DRAWDOWN
Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio
AccountU10001299
Shares10,000
Avg cost$14.75
Drawdown-16.0%
IV regimeHIGH
Writable100
Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.
Income playbook
Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾
Called-away odds4%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $16 CALL
31 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.05 · $400 this cycle
33.2%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
96%
Income / mo
$1,500
Annualized
15%
EV / cycle
+$311
If assigned
+$17,876
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.88/share ($8,761 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $17.02.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$16.5015d+$0.47$0.51 to $0.7069%54%
Up And Out$17.6115d+$0.04$0.00 to $0.2475%66%
Ss Escape$20.1136d+$0.10$0.06 to $0.4081%77%
Safety Up$20.1129d-$0.03$-0.08 to $0.2583%79%
Reliable Up$20.6136d-$0.04$-0.11 to $0.2583%80%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾
Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $724 (premium included).
Called-away odds15%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $14 CALL
31 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.18 / mid $0.18 · $1,800 this cycle
17.0%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
85%
Income / mo
$6,750
Annualized
66%
EV / cycle
+$1,077
If assigned
-$724
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.72/share ($7,159 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $14.92.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$14.5015d+$0.38$0.35 to $0.5168%54%
Up And Out$15.1115d+$0.14$0.07 to $0.2373%62%
Ss Escape$17.6136d+$0.03$-0.12 to $0.1682%78%
Safety Up$18.1129d-$0.16$-0.32 to $-0.0585%83%
Reliable Up$17.1136d+$0.12$-0.01 to $0.2580%75%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
NormalBalanced risk and income▾
Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $12,524 (premium included).
Called-away odds37%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $13 CALL
31 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.50 / mid $0.53 · $5,000 this cycle
4.9%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
63%
Income / mo
$18,750
Annualized
184%
EV / cycle
+$1,642
If assigned
-$12,524
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.61/share ($6,055 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $13.40.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$13.0015d+$0.33$0.24 to $0.3168%54%
Up And Out$13.6115d+$0.08$-0.05 to $0.0473%64%
Ss Escape$15.6136d+$0.01$-0.25 to $-0.0782%78%
Safety Up$18.1136d-$0.34$-0.69 to $-0.4590%90%
Reliable Up$14.6136d+$0.27$0.07 to $0.2277%71%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾
Called-away odds18%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $16 CALL
28 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.36 / mid $0.46 · $3,600 this cycle
33.2%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
82%
Income / mo
$3,000
Annualized
29%
EV / cycle
+$1,502
If assigned
+$21,076
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾
Called-away odds10%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $18 CALL
28 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.25 · $2,000 this cycle
49.3%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
90%
Income / mo
$1,667
Annualized
16%
EV / cycle
+$1,170
If assigned
+$39,476
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
NormalBalanced risk and income▾
Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $1,076 (premium included).
Called-away odds34%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $14 CALL
28 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.86 / mid $0.95 · $8,600 this cycle
13.0%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
66%
Income / mo
$7,167
Annualized
70%
EV / cycle
+$2,357
If assigned
+$1,076
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-23 03:31 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.