MARA @ $12.40

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-15.9%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 29 DTE · bid $0.18 / mid $0.20 · $1,800 this cycle

45.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$1,862

Annualized

18%

EV / cycle

+$1,082

If assigned

+$34,276

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.93/share ($19,316 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $18.59.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$18.00	36d	-$0.80	$-1.04 to $-0.39	64%	56%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $1,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.13 / mid $0.17 · $1,300 this cycle

16.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$4,875

Annualized

48%

EV / cycle

+$566

If assigned

-$1,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.81/share ($8,136 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $14.92.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	15d	+$0.21	$0.12 to $0.35	68%	54%
Up And Out	$14.60	15d	+$0.17	$0.06 to $0.29	68%	55%
Ss Escape	$17.09	36d	+$0.00	$-0.18 to $0.15	80%	75%
Safety Up	$17.09	29d	-$0.02	$-0.18 to $0.11	82%	77%
Reliable Up	$16.09	29d	+$0.22	$0.09 to $0.37	77%	70%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $12,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.54 / mid $0.57 · $5,400 this cycle

4.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$20,250

Annualized

199%

EV / cycle

+$2,050

If assigned

-$12,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.69/share ($6,879 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $13.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	15d	+$0.18	$0.00 to $0.13	67%	54%
Up And Out	$13.10	15d	+$0.14	$-0.06 to $0.08	68%	55%
Ss Escape	$14.60	29d	+$0.11	$-0.15 to $0.03	78%	72%
Safety Up	$18.59	29d	-$0.52	$-0.96 to $-0.66	93%	93%
Reliable Up	$14.10	29d	+$0.26	$0.03 to $0.19	76%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

28 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.46 · $1,500 this cycle

33.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$1,250

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

-$588

If assigned

+$18,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.03/share ($20,284 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $17.02.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	43d	-$1.79	$-2.40 to $-1.52	58%	56%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

28 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.46 · $1,500 this cycle

33.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$1,250

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

-$588

If assigned

+$18,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.03/share ($20,284 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $17.02.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	43d	-$1.79	$-2.40 to $-1.52	58%	56%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Called-away odds27%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

28 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.59 / mid $0.79 · $5,900 this cycle

20.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

73%

Income / mo

$4,917

Annualized

48%

EV / cycle

+$1,745

If assigned

+$8,376

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.75/share ($17,462 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $15.46.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	43d	-$1.54	$-2.26 to $-1.58	57%	56%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-23 21:39 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.