MARA @ $11.78

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-20.1%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 17 DTE · bid $0.07 / mid $0.08 · $700 this cycle

52.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,235

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$541

If assigned

+$33,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.49/share ($14,943 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 14 at spot $18.64.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$18.00	24d	+$0.41	$0.52 to $0.73	70%	55%
Up And Out	$18.72	24d	+$0.10	$0.14 to $0.41	72%	61%
Ss Escape	$21.22	45d	+$0.24	$0.32 to $0.74	79%	73%
Safety Up	$22.22	45d	-$0.03	$0.00 to $0.47	82%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,024 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.25 / mid $0.26 · $2,500 this cycle

18.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$7,500

Annualized

77%

EV / cycle

+$1,346

If assigned

-$5,024

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.85/share ($8,516 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $14.48.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	17d	+$0.31	$0.27 to $0.44	69%	54%
Up And Out	$14.72	17d	+$0.01	$-0.08 to $0.09	73%	64%
Ss Escape	$17.22	45d	+$0.11	$-0.05 to $0.23	82%	78%
Safety Up	$18.22	45d	-$0.10	$-0.29 to $-0.00	85%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $16,724 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.58 / mid $0.60 · $5,800 this cycle

6.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$17,400

Annualized

180%

EV / cycle

+$1,728

If assigned

-$16,724

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.72/share ($7,201 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $12.92.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	17d	+$0.26	$0.16 to $0.24	69%	54%
Up And Out	$12.72	17d	+$0.16	$0.06 to $0.13	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$14.72	45d	+$0.18	$-0.04 to $0.11	80%	75%
Safety Up	$18.72	45d	-$0.43	$-0.81 to $-0.57	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$13.72	45d	+$0.48	$0.29 to $0.42	76%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

11 Sep 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.43 / mid $0.48 · $4,300 this cycle

31.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$3,395

Annualized

35%

EV / cycle

+$1,806

If assigned

+$11,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.72/share ($17,164 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $15.98.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.50	45d	+$0.15	$0.08 to $0.23	70%	56%
Up And Out	$15.72	45d	+$0.06	$-0.01 to $0.14	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$15.72	45d	+$0.06	$-0.01 to $0.14	71%	58%
Safety Up	$16.72	45d	-$0.32	$-0.42 to $-0.29	75%	66%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

11 Sep 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.20 · $1,500 this cycle

52.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,184

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$754

If assigned

+$33,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.18/share ($21,776 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 25 at spot $18.53.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$18.00	45d	+$0.19	$0.17 to $0.45	71%	57%
Up And Out	$18.22	45d	+$0.11	$0.08 to $0.35	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$18.22	45d	+$0.11	$0.08 to $0.35	71%	58%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $9,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

4 Sep 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.82 / mid $0.91 · $8,200 this cycle

10.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$7,935

Annualized

82%

EV / cycle

+$1,858

If assigned

-$9,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.21/share ($12,068 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $13.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	38d	+$0.09	$-0.02 to $0.05	69%	55%
Up And Out	$13.22	38d	+$0.02	$-0.09 to $-0.03	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$13.22	38d	+$0.02	$-0.09 to $-0.03	71%	58%
Safety Up	$17.22	45d	-$0.81	$-1.14 to $-0.97	88%	86%
Reliable Up	$13.22	45d	+$0.22	$0.09 to $0.18	71%	58%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-08-04 03:32 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.