MARA @ $11.85

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-19.7%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds6%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.06 / mid $0.07 · $600 this cycle

35.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

94%

Income / mo

$1,800

Annualized

18%

EV / cycle

+$422

If assigned

+$13,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.01/share ($10,101 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 8 at spot $16.45.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	17d	+$0.37	$0.40 to $0.65	69%	54%
Up And Out	$16.65	17d	+$0.05	$0.04 to $0.31	72%	61%
Ss Escape	$20.15	45d	+$0.03	$0.01 to $0.40	82%	79%
Reliable Up	$21.15	45d	-$0.08	$-0.12 to $0.28	85%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.22 / mid $0.23 · $2,200 this cycle

18.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$6,600

Annualized

68%

EV / cycle

+$1,035

If assigned

-$5,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.82/share ($8,199 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $14.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	17d	+$0.30	$0.23 to $0.39	68%	54%
Up And Out	$14.15	17d	+$0.23	$0.16 to $0.32	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$17.15	45d	+$0.09	$-0.07 to $0.21	82%	78%
Safety Up	$18.15	45d	-$0.13	$-0.33 to $-0.03	85%	82%
Reliable Up	$16.15	45d	+$0.33	$0.19 to $0.46	78%	72%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $13,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds29%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.40 / mid $0.45 · $4,000 this cycle

9.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

71%

Income / mo

$12,000

Annualized

123%

EV / cycle

+$1,699

If assigned

-$13,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.73/share ($7,317 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $13.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	17d	+$0.27	$0.17 to $0.29	68%	54%
Up And Out	$13.15	17d	+$0.20	$0.09 to $0.21	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$16.15	45d	+$0.00	$-0.24 to $-0.01	83%	79%
Safety Up	$19.15	45d	-$0.40	$-0.73 to $-0.45	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$15.15	45d	+$0.23	$0.02 to $0.23	79%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

18 Sep 2026 · 45 DTE · bid $0.45 / mid $0.49 · $4,500 this cycle

35.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,000

Annualized

31%

EV / cycle

+$1,942

If assigned

+$16,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

11 Sep 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.20 · $1,500 this cycle

51.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$1,184

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$652

If assigned

+$33,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.39/share ($23,901 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 24 at spot $18.52.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$18.00	45d	-$0.06	$-0.14 to $0.22	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$17.15	45d	+$0.31	$0.25 to $0.66	68%	51%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $9,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

4 Sep 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.80 / mid $0.97 · $8,000 this cycle

9.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$7,742

Annualized

79%

EV / cycle

+$1,423

If assigned

-$9,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.21/share ($12,069 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $13.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	38d	-$0.19	$-0.43 to $-0.29	66%	55%
Ss Escape	$13.15	45d	+$0.21	$0.06 to $0.15	70%	57%
Safety Up	$16.15	45d	-$0.68	$-0.97 to $-0.82	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-08-04 21:42 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.