MARA @ $11.77

DEEP DRAWDOWN
Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio
AccountU10001299
Shares10,000
Avg cost$14.75
Drawdown-20.2%
IV regimeHIGH
Writable100
Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.
Income playbook
Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾
Called-away odds9%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $16 CALL
21 Aug 2026 · 16 DTE · bid $0.10 / mid $0.16 · $1,000 this cycle
35.9%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
91%
Income / mo
$1,875
Annualized
19%
EV / cycle
+$533
If assigned
+$13,476
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.24/share ($12,364 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $16.48.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$16.0023d+$0.15$0.12 to $0.3668%55%
Up And Out$16.2323d+$0.06$0.01 to $0.2669%57%
Ss Escape$19.2344d+$0.05$-0.01 to $0.3381%76%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾
Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,824 (premium included).
Called-away odds16%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $14 CALL
14 Aug 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.20 · $1,700 this cycle
18.9%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
84%
Income / mo
$5,667
Annualized
59%
EV / cycle
+$750
If assigned
-$5,824
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.81/share ($8,059 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $14.46.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$14.0016d+$0.28$0.23 to $0.4168%54%
Up And Out$14.2316d+$0.20$0.14 to $0.3170%57%
Ss Escape$17.2344d+$0.16$0.02 to $0.2982%78%
Safety Up$18.2344d-$0.15$-0.35 to $-0.0485%82%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
NormalBalanced risk and income▾
Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $17,524 (premium included).
Called-away odds36%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $12 CALL
14 Aug 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.50 / mid $0.55 · $5,000 this cycle
6.2%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
64%
Income / mo
$16,667
Annualized
172%
EV / cycle
+$1,347
If assigned
-$17,524
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.68/share ($6,810 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $12.95.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$12.5016d+$0.23$0.12 to $0.2168%54%
Up And Out$12.7316d+$0.15$0.03 to $0.1270%58%
Ss Escape$15.7344d+$0.01$-0.25 to $-0.0884%81%
Safety Up$18.7344d-$0.40$-0.77 to $-0.5392%91%
Reliable Up$13.7344d+$0.48$0.29 to $0.4376%67%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾
Called-away odds18%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $16 CALL
18 Sep 2026 · 44 DTE · bid $0.41 / mid $0.45 · $4,100 this cycle
35.9%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
82%
Income / mo
$2,795
Annualized
29%
EV / cycle
+$1,746
If assigned
+$16,576
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾
Called-away odds11%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $18 CALL
18 Sep 2026 · 44 DTE · bid $0.26 / mid $0.28 · $2,600 this cycle
52.9%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
89%
Income / mo
$1,773
Annualized
18%
EV / cycle
+$1,535
If assigned
+$35,076
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
NormalBalanced risk and income▾
Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $276 (premium included).
Called-away odds30%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $14 CALL
18 Sep 2026 · 44 DTE · bid $0.78 / mid $0.83 · $7,800 this cycle
18.9%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
70%
Income / mo
$5,318
Annualized
55%
EV / cycle
+$2,498
If assigned
+$276
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
stock_fight.py · generated 2026-08-05 21:44 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.