MARA @ $11.25

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-23.7%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $21,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

11 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.16 · $1,400 this cycle

11.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$6,000

Annualized

65%

EV / cycle

+$754

If assigned

-$21,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.47/share ($4,720 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $12.80.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	14d	+$0.27	$0.23 to $0.33	68%	53%
Up And Out	$12.75	14d	+$0.16	$0.10 to $0.21	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$15.25	42d	+$0.15	$0.03 to $0.21	83%	79%
Safety Up	$17.25	42d	-$0.12	$-0.29 to $-0.08	90%	88%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $7,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

11 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.04 · $400 this cycle

24.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,714

Annualized

19%

EV / cycle

+$318

If assigned

-$7,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.57/share ($5,704 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $14.37.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	14d	+$0.33	$0.33 to $0.46	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.75	14d	+$0.02	$-0.01 to $0.12	74%	66%
Ss Escape	$17.75	42d	+$0.12	$0.07 to $0.26	84%	82%
Safety Up	$18.75	42d	-$0.02	$-0.06 to $0.12	87%	85%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $25,024 (premium included).

Called-away odds28%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

11 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.25 / mid $0.27 · $2,500 this cycle

6.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

72%

Income / mo

$10,714

Annualized

116%

EV / cycle

+$1,117

If assigned

-$25,024

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.44/share ($4,412 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $12.29.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.00	14d	+$0.26	$0.19 to $0.27	68%	53%
Up And Out	$12.25	14d	+$0.14	$0.06 to $0.15	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$14.75	42d	+$0.10	$-0.06 to $0.09	84%	81%
Safety Up	$16.75	42d	-$0.15	$-0.36 to $-0.18	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$13.75	42d	+$0.31	$0.18 to $0.32	79%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.34 / mid $0.37 · $3,400 this cycle

33.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$2,429

Annualized

26%

EV / cycle

+$1,697

If assigned

+$5,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds12%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.23 · $1,500 this cycle

37.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

88%

Income / mo

$1,286

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$579

If assigned

+$8,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.53/share ($15,300 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 22 at spot $15.88.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.50	42d	+$0.13	$0.09 to $0.28	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$15.25	42d	+$0.23	$0.21 to $0.40	69%	53%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $10,724 (premium included).

Called-away odds31%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.68 / mid $0.72 · $6,800 this cycle

15.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

69%

Income / mo

$4,857

Annualized

53%

EV / cycle

+$2,400

If assigned

-$10,724

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-04 21:38 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.