MARA @ $12.27

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-16.8%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

18 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.03 / mid $0.04 · $300 this cycle

26.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,286

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$201

If assigned

+$7,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.68/share ($6,811 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $15.96.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.50	14d	+$0.42	$0.44 to $0.59	69%	53%
Up And Out	$16.23	14d	+$0.09	$0.06 to $0.26	74%	64%
Ss Escape	$19.23	35d	+$0.06	$-0.03 to $0.29	84%	80%
Reliable Up	$19.23	42d	+$0.08	$-0.02 to $0.32	83%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $6,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

18 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.15 · $1,400 this cycle

14.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$6,000

Annualized

59%

EV / cycle

+$817

If assigned

-$6,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.58/share ($5,782 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $14.37.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	14d	+$0.35	$0.33 to $0.48	69%	53%
Up And Out	$14.73	14d	+$0.04	$-0.04 to $0.11	75%	66%
Ss Escape	$17.23	42d	+$0.07	$-0.08 to $0.17	83%	80%
Safety Up	$17.73	35d	-$0.06	$-0.22 to $0.03	86%	83%
Reliable Up	$16.73	42d	+$0.17	$0.03 to $0.27	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $14,024 (premium included).

Called-away odds32%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

18 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.35 / mid $0.36 · $3,500 this cycle

5.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

68%

Income / mo

$15,000

Annualized

149%

EV / cycle

+$1,336

If assigned

-$14,024

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.51/share ($5,140 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $13.36.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	14d	+$0.31	$0.25 to $0.33	69%	53%
Up And Out	$13.73	14d	+$0.00	$-0.12 to $-0.02	76%	67%
Ss Escape	$15.73	35d	+$0.06	$-0.14 to $0.02	83%	80%
Safety Up	$17.73	35d	-$0.23	$-0.50 to $-0.29	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$15.23	42d	+$0.19	$-0.00 to $0.16	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.36 / mid $0.38 · $3,600 this cycle

30.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$3,086

Annualized

31%

EV / cycle

+$1,811

If assigned

+$16,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.50/share ($14,953 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $16.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	42d	+$0.14	$0.07 to $0.25	69%	55%
Up And Out	$16.23	42d	+$0.03	$-0.04 to $0.13	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$16.23	42d	+$0.03	$-0.04 to $0.13	70%	57%
Safety Up	$16.73	42d	-$0.18	$-0.27 to $-0.09	72%	62%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.21 · $2,000 this cycle

46.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$1,714

Annualized

17%

EV / cycle

+$1,266

If assigned

+$34,476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.82/share ($18,163 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 24 at spot $18.50.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$18.00	42d	+$0.16	$0.14 to $0.41	69%	56%
Up And Out	$18.23	42d	+$0.05	$0.02 to $0.29	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$18.23	42d	+$0.05	$0.02 to $0.29	70%	57%
Safety Up	$18.73	42d	-$0.17	$-0.22 to $0.05	72%	61%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $3,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds38%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.92 / mid $1.03 · $9,200 this cycle

10.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

62%

Income / mo

$6,571

Annualized

65%

EV / cycle

+$2,085

If assigned

-$3,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-11 22:04 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.