MARA @ $11.53

DEEP DRAWDOWN
Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio
AccountU10001299
Shares10,000
Avg cost$14.75
Drawdown-21.8%
IV regimeHIGH
Writable100
Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.
Income playbook
Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾
Called-away odds5%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $16 CALL
25 Sep 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.05 / mid $0.06 · $500 this cycle
34.4%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
95%
Income / mo
$1,364
Annualized
14%
EV / cycle
+$346
If assigned
+$7,976
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.82/share ($8,233 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $15.93.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$15.5018d+$0.37$0.43 to $0.6069%54%
Up And Out$16.4718d+$0.01$0.01 to $0.1875%66%
Ss Escape$18.9739d+$0.09$0.10 to $0.3782%78%
Safety Up$19.4739d-$0.00$-0.02 to $0.2783%80%
Reliable Up$19.9739d-$0.08$-0.11 to $0.1885%82%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾
Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $10,624 (premium included).
Called-away odds17%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $14 CALL
25 Sep 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.19 / mid $0.20 · $1,900 this cycle
17.1%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
83%
Income / mo
$5,182
Annualized
55%
EV / cycle
+$999
If assigned
-$10,624
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.66/share ($6,586 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $13.86.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$13.5018d+$0.29$0.28 to $0.3968%53%
Up And Out$13.9718d+$0.10$0.06 to $0.1772%61%
Ss Escape$16.4739d+$0.01$-0.10 to $0.0983%79%
Safety Up$17.4739d-$0.15$-0.29 to $-0.0886%84%
Reliable Up$15.9739d+$0.10$-0.00 to $0.1981%76%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
NormalBalanced risk and income▾
Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $18,824 (premium included).
Called-away odds30%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $12 CALL
25 Sep 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.37 / mid $0.38 · $3,700 this cycle
8.4%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
70%
Income / mo
$10,091
Annualized
106%
EV / cycle
+$1,316
If assigned
-$18,824
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.58/share ($5,827 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $12.85.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$12.5018d+$0.26$0.21 to $0.2868%53%
Up And Out$12.9718d+$0.07$-0.00 to $0.0673%62%
Ss Escape$14.9739d+$0.02$-0.14 to $-0.0082%78%
Safety Up$17.9739d-$0.33$-0.59 to $-0.3992%91%
Reliable Up$14.4739d+$0.13$-0.01 to $0.1280%74%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾
Called-away odds19%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $15 CALL
23 Oct 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.40 / mid $0.42 · $4,000 this cycle
30.1%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
81%
Income / mo
$3,077
Annualized
32%
EV / cycle
+$1,856
If assigned
+$6,476
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾
Called-away odds8%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $18 CALL
23 Oct 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.18 · $1,700 this cycle
56.1%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
92%
Income / mo
$1,308
Annualized
14%
EV / cycle
+$1,119
If assigned
+$34,176
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
NormalBalanced risk and income▾
Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $10,824 (premium included).
Called-away odds32%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $13 CALL
16 Oct 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $0.67 / mid $0.69 · $6,700 this cycle
12.7%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
68%
Income / mo
$6,281
Annualized
66%
EV / cycle
+$2,234
If assigned
-$10,824
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.05/share ($10,489 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $13.35.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$13.0039d+$0.13$0.06 to $0.1269%55%
Ss Escape$12.9739d+$0.14$0.07 to $0.1469%54%
Safety Up$15.9739d-$0.67$-0.88 to $-0.7586%83%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-14 21:53 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.