MARA @ $11.28

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-23.5%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

25 Sep 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.04 · $400 this cycle

37.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,200

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$292

If assigned

+$7,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.81/share ($8,087 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 8 at spot $15.96.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.50	17d	+$0.38	$0.45 to $0.60	68%	54%
Up And Out	$16.22	17d	+$0.09	$0.11 to $0.28	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$19.72	45d	+$0.06	$0.07 to $0.34	83%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $15,624 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

25 Sep 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.19 / mid $0.21 · $1,900 this cycle

15.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$5,700

Annualized

61%

EV / cycle

+$870

If assigned

-$15,624

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.61/share ($6,097 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $13.36.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	17d	+$0.28	$0.25 to $0.34	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.72	17d	+$0.00	$-0.07 to $0.05	74%	65%
Ss Escape	$16.22	45d	+$0.02	$-0.12 to $0.09	83%	80%
Safety Up	$17.22	45d	-$0.14	$-0.31 to $-0.07	87%	85%
Reliable Up	$15.72	45d	+$0.13	$0.00 to $0.21	82%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $23,624 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

25 Sep 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.39 / mid $0.40 · $3,900 this cycle

6.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$11,700

Annualized

126%

EV / cycle

+$1,110

If assigned

-$23,624

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.54/share ($5,375 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $12.34.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.00	17d	+$0.25	$0.19 to $0.25	68%	53%
Up And Out	$12.22	17d	+$0.15	$0.08 to $0.14	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$14.72	45d	+$0.04	$-0.14 to $-0.00	83%	79%
Safety Up	$16.72	38d	-$0.28	$-0.54 to $-0.36	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$14.22	45d	+$0.15	$-0.02 to $0.11	81%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.13 / mid $0.14 · $1,300 this cycle

50.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,258

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$833

If assigned

+$23,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.58/share ($15,770 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 22 at spot $17.51.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	38d	+$0.29	$0.34 to $0.55	70%	55%
Up And Out	$17.22	38d	+$0.19	$0.23 to $0.42	71%	57%
Ss Escape	$17.72	45d	+$0.09	$0.10 to $0.43	72%	61%
Safety Up	$18.72	45d	-$0.09	$-0.10 to $0.20	76%	68%
Reliable Up	$18.22	45d	-$0.00	$-0.00 to $0.31	74%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $1,376 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.39 / mid $0.42 · $3,900 this cycle

28.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$3,079

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$1,702

If assigned

+$1,376

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.37/share ($13,749 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 21 at spot $14.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	45d	+$0.11	$0.05 to $0.19	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$14.22	45d	+$0.26	$0.22 to $0.37	68%	52%
Safety Up	$15.72	45d	-$0.35	$-0.45 to $-0.31	75%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $14,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.80 / mid $0.82 · $8,000 this cycle

10.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$6,316

Annualized

68%

EV / cycle

+$2,262

If assigned

-$14,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.08/share ($10,818 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $12.84.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	45d	+$0.08	$0.00 to $0.05	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$12.22	45d	+$0.23	$0.17 to $0.22	67%	51%
Safety Up	$15.72	45d	-$0.75	$-1.00 to $-0.86	87%	85%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-15 21:53 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.