MARA @ $11.52

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-21.9%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

25 Sep 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.05 · $400 this cycle

30.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,333

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$253

If assigned

+$2,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.69/share ($6,881 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $15.45.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	16d	+$0.37	$0.43 to $0.56	68%	54%
Up And Out	$15.98	16d	+$0.01	$-0.00 to $0.14	74%	67%
Ss Escape	$18.98	44d	+$0.05	$0.03 to $0.26	83%	80%
Safety Up	$18.98	37d	-$0.02	$-0.04 to $0.18	85%	82%
Reliable Up	$19.48	44d	-$0.03	$-0.06 to $0.18	84%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $11,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

25 Sep 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.12 / mid $0.14 · $1,200 this cycle

17.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$4,000

Annualized

42%

EV / cycle

+$535

If assigned

-$11,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.58/share ($5,813 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $13.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	16d	+$0.31	$0.30 to $0.41	67%	54%
Up And Out	$13.98	16d	+$0.12	$0.07 to $0.20	71%	61%
Ss Escape	$16.98	44d	+$0.01	$-0.12 to $0.10	83%	81%
Safety Up	$17.48	44d	-$0.07	$-0.21 to $0.02	85%	83%
Reliable Up	$16.48	44d	+$0.11	$-0.01 to $0.20	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $19,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds29%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

25 Sep 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.30 / mid $0.31 · $3,000 this cycle

8.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

71%

Income / mo

$10,000

Annualized

106%

EV / cycle

+$1,011

If assigned

-$19,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.51/share ($5,148 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $12.87.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	16d	+$0.28	$0.23 to $0.31	67%	53%
Up And Out	$12.98	16d	+$0.08	$0.02 to $0.09	72%	62%
Ss Escape	$15.48	44d	+$0.03	$-0.14 to $0.01	83%	80%
Safety Up	$17.98	44d	-$0.27	$-0.52 to $-0.31	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$14.48	44d	+$0.23	$0.10 to $0.24	79%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 37 DTE · bid $0.34 / mid $0.36 · $3,400 this cycle

30.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$2,757

Annualized

29%

EV / cycle

+$1,531

If assigned

+$5,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.40/share ($13,975 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 21 at spot $15.39.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	44d	+$0.12	$0.06 to $0.22	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$14.98	44d	+$0.13	$0.07 to $0.22	69%	55%
Safety Up	$15.98	44d	-$0.26	$-0.34 to $-0.20	73%	64%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.13 / mid $0.14 · $1,300 this cycle

47.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,300

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$777

If assigned

+$23,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.53/share ($15,273 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 21 at spot $17.44.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	37d	+$0.25	$0.27 to $0.47	69%	55%
Up And Out	$17.48	37d	+$0.05	$0.04 to $0.25	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$17.98	44d	+$0.08	$0.07 to $0.37	73%	63%
Safety Up	$18.48	44d	-$0.10	$-0.13 to $0.18	75%	66%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $11,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds32%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.62 / mid $0.63 · $6,200 this cycle

12.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

68%

Income / mo

$6,200

Annualized

65%

EV / cycle

+$1,968

If assigned

-$11,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.99/share ($9,865 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $13.35.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	37d	+$0.16	$0.10 to $0.16	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$13.48	44d	+$0.10	$0.00 to $0.09	71%	61%
Safety Up	$15.98	44d	-$0.55	$-0.77 to $-0.62	84%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-16 21:52 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.