MARA @ $10.99

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-25.5%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds3%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

25 Sep 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.03 / mid $0.04 · $300 this cycle

36.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

97%

Income / mo

$1,125

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$257

If assigned

+$2,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.74/share ($7,425 total).

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	15d	+$0.37	-	69%	54%
Up And Out	$15.51	15d	+$0.15	-	72%	61%
Ss Escape	$19.01	36d	+$0.05	-	86%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $20,924 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

25 Sep 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.16 / mid $0.17 · $1,600 this cycle

13.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$6,000

Annualized

66%

EV / cycle

+$929

If assigned

-$20,924

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.55/share ($5,517 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $12.81.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	15d	+$0.27	$0.24 to $0.35	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.01	15d	+$0.06	$-0.01 to $0.11	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$15.51	43d	+$0.03	$-0.10 to $0.10	83%	80%
Safety Up	$16.01	36d	-$0.11	$-0.25 to $-0.06	87%	85%
Reliable Up	$15.01	43d	+$0.12	$-0.00 to $0.20	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $28,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

25 Sep 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.40 / mid $0.41 · $4,000 this cycle

4.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$15,000

Annualized

166%

EV / cycle

+$1,492

If assigned

-$28,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.48/share ($4,829 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $11.81.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$11.50	15d	+$0.24	$0.17 to $0.23	68%	53%
Up And Out	$12.01	15d	+$0.02	$-0.08 to $-0.01	74%	64%
Ss Escape	$14.01	43d	+$0.04	$-0.17 to $-0.03	83%	79%
Safety Up	$16.01	43d	-$0.22	$-0.49 to $-0.31	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$13.01	43d	+$0.26	$0.10 to $0.21	78%	72%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.18 · $1,700 this cycle

45.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,417

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$1,263

If assigned

+$14,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.64/share ($16,406 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 24 at spot $16.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	43d	+$0.18	$0.18 to $0.39	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$16.01	43d	+$0.18	$0.18 to $0.38	70%	56%
Safety Up	$16.51	43d	-$0.07	$-0.10 to $0.11	72%	60%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $3,824 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.37 / mid $0.40 · $3,700 this cycle

27.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,083

Annualized

34%

EV / cycle

+$1,828

If assigned

-$3,824

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.31/share ($13,144 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $14.36.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	43d	+$0.15	$0.10 to $0.22	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$14.01	43d	+$0.14	$0.10 to $0.22	70%	55%
Safety Up	$15.01	43d	-$0.30	$-0.40 to $-0.26	74%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $19,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.80 / mid $0.82 · $8,000 this cycle

9.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$6,667

Annualized

74%

EV / cycle

+$2,454

If assigned

-$19,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.02/share ($10,228 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $12.32.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.00	43d	+$0.11	$0.05 to $0.09	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$12.01	43d	+$0.11	$0.04 to $0.08	69%	55%
Safety Up	$15.51	43d	-$0.79	$-1.08 to $-0.93	89%	88%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-17 03:51 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.