MARA @ $12.36

DEEP DRAWDOWN
Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio
AccountU10001299
Shares10,000
Avg cost$14.75
Drawdown-16.2%
IV regimeHIGH
Writable100
Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.
Income playbook
Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾
Called-away odds5%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $16 CALL
25 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.03 / mid $0.04 · $300 this cycle
25.4%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
95%
Income / mo
$1,286
Annualized
13%
EV / cycle
+$198
If assigned
+$7,776
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.62/share ($6,227 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $15.93.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$15.5014d+$0.40$0.42 to $0.5669%53%
Up And Out$16.1414d+$0.14$0.11 to $0.2773%63%
Ss Escape$19.6442d+$0.02$-0.06 to $0.2184%81%
Safety Up$20.1442d-$0.01$-0.10 to $0.1786%83%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾
Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $6,124 (premium included).
Called-away odds16%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $14 CALL
25 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.15 · $1,400 this cycle
13.3%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
84%
Income / mo
$6,000
Annualized
59%
EV / cycle
+$761
If assigned
-$6,124
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.53/share ($5,268 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $14.35.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$14.0014d+$0.34$0.32 to $0.4568%53%
Up And Out$14.6414d+$0.08$0.01 to $0.1474%65%
Ss Escape$17.1435d+$0.02$-0.10 to $0.1184%81%
Safety Up$18.6442d-$0.11$-0.27 to $-0.0388%86%
Reliable Up$17.1442d+$0.09$-0.04 to $0.1883%80%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
NormalBalanced risk and income▾
Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $14,124 (premium included).
Called-away odds33%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $13 CALL
25 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.34 / mid $0.35 · $3,400 this cycle
5.2%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
67%
Income / mo
$14,571
Annualized
143%
EV / cycle
+$1,164
If assigned
-$14,124
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.47/share ($4,671 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $13.34.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$13.0014d+$0.30$0.24 to $0.3268%53%
Up And Out$13.6414d+$0.04$-0.06 to $0.0275%66%
Ss Escape$16.1442d+$0.02$-0.19 to $-0.0384%82%
Safety Up$16.6428d-$0.20$-0.43 to $-0.2690%89%
Reliable Up$15.1442d+$0.21$0.04 to $0.1880%75%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾
Called-away odds20%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $16 CALL
23 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.40 / mid $0.43 · $4,000 this cycle
25.4%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
80%
Income / mo
$3,429
Annualized
34%
EV / cycle
+$1,802
If assigned
+$11,476
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.38/share ($13,840 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $15.90.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$15.5042d+$0.10$0.03 to $0.1869%55%
Up And Out$15.6442d+$0.03$-0.04 to $0.1069%56%
Ss Escape$15.6442d+$0.03$-0.04 to $0.1069%56%
Safety Up$16.6442d-$0.35$-0.46 to $-0.3274%66%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾
Called-away odds9%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $18 CALL
23 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.16 / mid $0.17 · $1,600 this cycle
45.6%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
91%
Income / mo
$1,371
Annualized
13%
EV / cycle
+$961
If assigned
+$34,076
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.77/share ($17,741 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 24 at spot $18.49.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$18.0042d+$0.12$0.10 to $0.3869%55%
Up And Out$18.1442d+$0.06$0.03 to $0.3170%57%
Ss Escape$18.1442d+$0.06$0.03 to $0.3170%57%
Safety Up$18.6442d-$0.16$-0.21 to $0.0771%60%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
NormalBalanced risk and income▾
Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $4,124 (premium included).
Called-away odds37%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $14 CALL
23 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.84 / mid $0.87 · $8,400 this cycle
9.2%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
63%
Income / mo
$7,200
Annualized
71%
EV / cycle
+$2,360
If assigned
-$4,124
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.11/share ($11,052 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $13.85.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$13.5042d+$0.08$-0.02 to $0.0468%55%
Up And Out$13.6442d+$0.01$-0.09 to $-0.0369%56%
Ss Escape$13.6442d+$0.01$-0.09 to $-0.0369%56%
Safety Up$16.6442d-$0.78$-1.07 to $-0.9286%84%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-18 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.