MARA @ $13.22

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-10.4%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.25 / mid $0.26 · $2,500 this cycle

13.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$7,500

Annualized

69%

EV / cycle

+$1,290

If assigned

+$4,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.68/share ($6,790 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $15.37.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	17d	+$0.32	$0.29 to $0.43	68%	53%
Up And Out	$15.78	17d	+$0.02	$-0.06 to $0.07	74%	65%
Ss Escape	$18.28	38d	+$0.01	$-0.13 to $0.09	83%	80%
Safety Up	$19.78	38d	-$0.21	$-0.40 to $-0.15	88%	86%
Reliable Up	$17.78	38d	+$0.12	$-0.01 to $0.20	82%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.05 / mid $0.06 · $500 this cycle

32.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,500

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$369

If assigned

+$27,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.87/share ($8,747 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 8 at spot $17.94.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.50	17d	+$0.42	$0.49 to $0.66	69%	54%
Up And Out	$18.28	17d	+$0.11	$0.12 to $0.30	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$21.28	38d	+$0.15	$0.14 to $0.42	82%	78%
Safety Up	$22.28	38d	-$0.04	$-0.09 to $0.22	85%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $2,824 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.47 / mid $0.48 · $4,700 this cycle

5.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$14,100

Annualized

130%

EV / cycle

+$1,632

If assigned

-$2,824

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.61/share ($6,073 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $14.37.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	17d	+$0.29	$0.23 to $0.30	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.28	17d	+$0.17	$0.09 to $0.16	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$16.78	38d	+$0.03	$-0.16 to $-0.01	83%	79%
Safety Up	$19.78	38d	-$0.34	$-0.64 to $-0.42	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$15.78	38d	+$0.25	$0.09 to $0.22	78%	72%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.46 / mid $0.46 · $4,600 this cycle

28.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,632

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$2,268

If assigned

+$27,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds7%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $20 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.15 · $1,400 this cycle

51.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

93%

Income / mo

$1,355

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$945

If assigned

+$53,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.84/share ($18,421 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 23 at spot $20.53.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$20.00	38d	+$0.36	$0.40 to $0.66	70%	55%
Up And Out	$20.78	38d	+$0.05	$0.05 to $0.29	73%	61%
Ss Escape	$20.78	38d	+$0.05	$0.05 to $0.29	73%	61%
Safety Up	$21.28	38d	-$0.13	$-0.13 to $0.08	74%	64%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,876 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.84 / mid $0.86 · $8,400 this cycle

9.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$8,129

Annualized

75%

EV / cycle

+$2,725

If assigned

+$5,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.08/share ($10,797 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $14.87.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	38d	+$0.21	$0.17 to $0.21	69%	54%
Up And Out	$14.78	38d	+$0.09	$0.04 to $0.08	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$14.78	38d	+$0.09	$0.04 to $0.08	71%	58%
Safety Up	$18.28	38d	-$0.75	$-1.00 to $-0.86	89%	87%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-22 03:50 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.