MARA @ $13.36

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-9.4%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.19 / mid $0.20 · $1,900 this cycle

16.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$5,700

Annualized

52%

EV / cycle

+$1,035

If assigned

+$9,376

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.75/share ($7,456 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $15.90.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.50	17d	+$0.31	$0.27 to $0.42	68%	53%
Up And Out	$16.14	17d	+$0.05	$-0.02 to $0.12	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$18.64	38d	+$0.02	$-0.12 to $0.11	82%	78%
Safety Up	$19.14	38d	-$0.08	$-0.23 to $0.01	84%	81%
Reliable Up	$18.14	38d	+$0.13	$0.02 to $0.23	80%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.05 / mid $0.06 · $500 this cycle

31.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,500

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$356

If assigned

+$27,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.91/share ($9,092 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 8 at spot $17.98.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.50	17d	+$0.38	$0.44 to $0.64	69%	54%
Up And Out	$18.14	17d	+$0.12	$0.13 to $0.33	72%	61%
Ss Escape	$21.14	38d	+$0.08	$0.05 to $0.38	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $2,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.53 / mid $0.55 · $5,300 this cycle

4.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$15,900

Annualized

145%

EV / cycle

+$1,764

If assigned

-$2,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($6,330 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $14.37.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	17d	+$0.26	$0.18 to $0.24	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.64	17d	+$0.00	$-0.12 to $-0.04	74%	64%
Ss Escape	$16.64	38d	+$0.02	$-0.21 to $-0.06	82%	78%
Safety Up	$19.64	38d	-$0.38	$-0.72 to $-0.50	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$15.64	38d	+$0.26	$0.08 to $0.20	78%	71%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.36 / mid $0.38 · $3,600 this cycle

27.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$3,484

Annualized

32%

EV / cycle

+$1,741

If assigned

+$26,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.45/share ($14,540 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 18 at spot $17.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	38d	+$0.23	$0.19 to $0.35	70%	55%
Up And Out	$17.14	38d	+$0.17	$0.13 to $0.27	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$17.14	38d	+$0.17	$0.13 to $0.27	70%	56%
Safety Up	$18.14	38d	-$0.23	$-0.30 to $-0.17	74%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $20 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.21 · $2,000 this cycle

49.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,579

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$1,257

If assigned

+$54,476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $6,376 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.89 / mid $0.92 · $8,900 this cycle

8.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$8,613

Annualized

78%

EV / cycle

+$2,779

If assigned

+$6,376

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.12/share ($11,204 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $14.87.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	38d	+$0.18	$0.11 to $0.16	69%	54%
Up And Out	$14.64	38d	+$0.12	$0.05 to $0.09	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$14.64	38d	+$0.12	$0.05 to $0.09	70%	56%
Safety Up	$18.14	38d	-$0.80	$-1.08 to $-0.93	88%	86%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-22 21:48 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.