MARA @ $13.71

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-7.1%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.22 / mid $0.23 · $2,200 this cycle

13.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$7,333

Annualized

65%

EV / cycle

+$1,148

If assigned

+$9,676

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.67/share ($6,697 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $15.90.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.50	16d	+$0.35	$0.31 to $0.45	69%	53%
Up And Out	$16.29	16d	+$0.02	$-0.06 to $0.07	74%	65%
Ss Escape	$18.79	37d	+$0.01	$-0.15 to $0.07	83%	80%
Safety Up	$19.79	37d	-$0.15	$-0.34 to $-0.10	86%	84%
Reliable Up	$18.29	37d	+$0.11	$-0.04 to $0.18	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.06 / mid $0.07 · $600 this cycle

27.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$2,000

Annualized

18%

EV / cycle

+$449

If assigned

+$28,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.82/share ($8,174 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $17.93.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.50	16d	+$0.43	$0.49 to $0.65	69%	53%
Up And Out	$18.29	16d	+$0.10	$0.09 to $0.28	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$20.79	37d	+$0.18	$0.16 to $0.43	81%	77%
Safety Up	$21.79	37d	-$0.02	$-0.05 to $0.22	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $1,976 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.45 / mid $0.46 · $4,500 this cycle

5.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$15,000

Annualized

133%

EV / cycle

+$1,648

If assigned

+$1,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.60/share ($6,011 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $14.87.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	16d	+$0.31	$0.25 to $0.32	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.79	16d	+$0.17	$0.09 to $0.16	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$17.29	37d	+$0.03	$-0.17 to $-0.02	83%	79%
Safety Up	$19.79	37d	-$0.29	$-0.57 to $-0.37	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$16.79	37d	+$0.15	$-0.03 to $0.10	81%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and incomeRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.83 / mid $0.85 · $8,300 this cycle

9.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$8,300

Annualized

74%

EV / cycle

+$2,650

If assigned

+$10,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.10/share ($11,028 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $15.37.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	37d	+$0.21	$0.15 to $0.19	69%	54%
Up And Out	$15.29	37d	+$0.09	$0.02 to $0.06	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$15.29	37d	+$0.09	$0.02 to $0.06	71%	58%
Safety Up	$18.29	37d	-$0.72	$-0.96 to $-0.82	86%	84%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $21 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 37 DTE · bid $0.18 / mid $0.19 · $1,800 this cycle

53.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,459

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,199

If assigned

+$64,276

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.42 / mid $0.43 · $4,200 this cycle

24.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$4,200

Annualized

37%

EV / cycle

+$2,008

If assigned

+$26,676

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.36/share ($13,558 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $17.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	37d	+$0.25	$0.21 to $0.32	69%	55%
Up And Out	$17.29	37d	+$0.13	$0.08 to $0.19	71%	57%
Ss Escape	$17.29	37d	+$0.13	$0.08 to $0.19	71%	57%
Safety Up	$18.79	37d	-$0.40	$-0.51 to $-0.38	77%	71%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-23 03:50 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.