MARA @ $13.58

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-7.9%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.18 · $1,700 this cycle

14.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$5,667

Annualized

51%

EV / cycle

+$887

If assigned

+$9,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.65/share ($6,480 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $15.90.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.50	16d	+$0.32	$0.29 to $0.42	68%	53%
Up And Out	$15.92	16d	+$0.13	$0.07 to $0.20	71%	60%
Ss Escape	$18.42	37d	+$0.08	$-0.05 to $0.16	82%	78%
Safety Up	$19.92	37d	-$0.16	$-0.34 to $-0.10	87%	85%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds6%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.06 / mid $0.07 · $600 this cycle

25.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

94%

Income / mo

$2,000

Annualized

18%

EV / cycle

+$421

If assigned

+$23,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.75/share ($7,546 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $17.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	16d	+$0.37	$0.40 to $0.58	68%	53%
Up And Out	$17.42	16d	+$0.18	$0.19 to $0.37	70%	59%
Ss Escape	$20.42	37d	+$0.11	$0.07 to $0.36	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $1,176 (premium included).

Called-away odds31%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.37 / mid $0.39 · $3,700 this cycle

6.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

69%

Income / mo

$12,333

Annualized

110%

EV / cycle

+$1,342

If assigned

+$1,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.58/share ($5,812 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $14.86.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	16d	+$0.28	$0.22 to $0.30	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.92	16d	+$0.10	$0.01 to $0.09	71%	60%
Ss Escape	$17.42	37d	+$0.01	$-0.17 to $-0.03	83%	80%
Safety Up	$19.92	37d	-$0.31	$-0.57 to $-0.38	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$16.42	37d	+$0.23	$0.08 to $0.21	79%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and incomeRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.75 / mid $0.77 · $7,500 this cycle

10.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$7,500

Annualized

67%

EV / cycle

+$2,376

If assigned

+$9,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.08/share ($10,837 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $15.38.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	37d	+$0.20	$0.15 to $0.20	69%	54%
Up And Out	$15.42	37d	+$0.02	$-0.05 to $0.00	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$15.42	37d	+$0.02	$-0.05 to $0.00	71%	59%
Safety Up	$18.42	37d	-$0.73	$-0.98 to $-0.82	87%	85%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $20 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 37 DTE · bid $0.18 / mid $0.20 · $1,800 this cycle

47.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,459

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,029

If assigned

+$54,276

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.35 / mid $0.37 · $3,500 this cycle

25.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$3,500

Annualized

31%

EV / cycle

+$1,585

If assigned

+$25,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.33/share ($13,331 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $17.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	37d	+$0.25	$0.21 to $0.35	69%	55%
Up And Out	$17.42	37d	+$0.07	$0.02 to $0.14	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$17.42	37d	+$0.07	$0.02 to $0.14	71%	59%
Safety Up	$18.42	37d	-$0.29	$-0.38 to $-0.25	76%	68%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-23 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.