MARA @ $13.40

SHALLOW UNDERWATER
Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio
AccountU10001299
Shares10,000
Avg cost$14.75
Drawdown-9.2%
IV regimeHIGH
Writable100
Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.
Income playbook
ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾
Called-away odds19%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $15 CALL
2 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.22 / mid $0.23 · $2,200 this cycle
11.9%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
81%
Income / mo
$8,250
Annualized
75%
EV / cycle
+$1,223
If assigned
+$4,676
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.60/share ($6,041 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $15.39.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$15.0015d+$0.33$0.30 to $0.4268%53%
Up And Out$15.6015d+$0.09$0.02 to $0.1473%63%
Ss Escape$18.1036d+$0.05$-0.10 to $0.1183%80%
Safety Up$19.6036d-$0.16$-0.35 to $-0.1188%86%
Reliable Up$17.6036d+$0.16$0.03 to $0.2381%77%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾
Called-away odds3%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $18 CALL
2 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.04 · $400 this cycle
30.6%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
97%
Income / mo
$1,500
Annualized
14%
EV / cycle
+$330
If assigned
+$27,876
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.78/share ($7,796 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $17.98.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$17.5015d+$0.43$0.51 to $0.6469%53%
Up And Out$18.6015d+$0.02$-0.00 to $0.1776%67%
Ss Escape$22.1036d+$0.03$-0.02 to $0.2685%82%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
NormalBalanced risk and income▾
Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $3,024 (premium included).
Called-away odds36%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $14 CALL
2 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.45 / mid $0.46 · $4,500 this cycle
4.5%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
64%
Income / mo
$16,875
Annualized
153%
EV / cycle
+$1,604
If assigned
-$3,024
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.54/share ($5,398 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $14.36.
DoorNew strikeTenorEst credit/shP25-P75POPSurvival
Credit Out$14.0015d+$0.29$0.22 to $0.2968%53%
Up And Out$14.6015d+$0.06$-0.05 to $0.0274%64%
Ss Escape$16.6036d+$0.08$-0.12 to $0.0282%78%
Safety Up$19.6036d-$0.30$-0.60 to $-0.4092%91%
Reliable Up$16.1036d+$0.18$-0.00 to $0.1380%75%
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.
NormalBalanced risk and incomeRECOMMENDED▾
Called-away odds33%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $15 CALL
30 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.84 / mid $0.86 · $8,400 this cycle
11.9%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
67%
Income / mo
$7,000
Annualized
64%
EV / cycle
+$2,831
If assigned
+$10,876
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾
Called-away odds8%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $20 CALL
30 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.18 / mid $0.20 · $1,800 this cycle
49.3%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
92%
Income / mo
$1,500
Annualized
14%
EV / cycle
+$1,164
If assigned
+$54,276
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾
Called-away odds19%
SaferRiskier
SELL 100 × $17 CALL
30 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.44 / mid $0.46 · $4,400 this cycle
26.9%
OTM
Survival (OTM)
81%
Income / mo
$3,667
Annualized
33%
EV / cycle
+$2,107
If assigned
+$26,876
If challenged: pre-priced escape map
No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.
stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-24 03:50 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.