MARA @ $13.34

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-9.6%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.19 / mid $0.20 · $1,900 this cycle

12.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$7,125

Annualized

65%

EV / cycle

+$933

If assigned

+$4,376

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.61/share ($6,148 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $15.39.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	15d	+$0.31	$0.27 to $0.39	68%	53%
Up And Out	$15.66	15d	+$0.04	$-0.05 to $0.09	73%	64%
Ss Escape	$18.66	43d	+$0.03	$-0.14 to $0.09	84%	81%
Safety Up	$20.16	43d	-$0.19	$-0.40 to $-0.13	88%	87%
Reliable Up	$18.16	43d	+$0.12	$-0.03 to $0.19	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.05 · $400 this cycle

27.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,500

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$278

If assigned

+$22,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.75/share ($7,547 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $17.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	15d	+$0.38	$0.42 to $0.60	68%	53%
Up And Out	$17.66	15d	+$0.10	$0.12 to $0.31	73%	62%
Ss Escape	$21.66	43d	+$0.02	$0.01 to $0.31	84%	82%
Reliable Up	$22.16	43d	-$0.06	$-0.08 to $0.23	85%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $3,424 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.41 / mid $0.43 · $4,100 this cycle

4.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$15,375

Annualized

140%

EV / cycle

+$1,295

If assigned

-$3,424

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.55/share ($5,499 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $14.37.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	15d	+$0.27	$0.20 to $0.27	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.66	15d	+$0.00	$-0.12 to $-0.03	74%	65%
Ss Escape	$17.16	43d	+$0.04	$-0.19 to $-0.02	83%	80%
Safety Up	$19.66	36d	-$0.32	$-0.63 to $-0.42	92%	92%
Reliable Up	$16.16	43d	+$0.24	$0.06 to $0.21	79%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.41 / mid $0.43 · $4,100 this cycle

27.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,417

Annualized

31%

EV / cycle

+$1,907

If assigned

+$26,576

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.52/share ($15,202 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $17.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	43d	+$0.14	$0.07 to $0.22	69%	55%
Up And Out	$17.16	43d	+$0.07	$0.00 to $0.14	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$17.16	43d	+$0.07	$0.00 to $0.14	70%	57%
Safety Up	$18.16	43d	-$0.30	$-0.40 to $-0.26	74%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $20 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.18 · $1,700 this cycle

49.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,417

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,102

If assigned

+$54,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.00/share ($19,974 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 25 at spot $20.52.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$20.00	43d	+$0.18	$0.19 to $0.44	69%	56%
Up And Out	$20.16	43d	+$0.11	$0.11 to $0.36	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$20.16	43d	+$0.11	$0.11 to $0.36	70%	57%
Safety Up	$20.66	43d	-$0.09	$-0.10 to $0.14	71%	60%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $6,976 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.95 / mid $0.97 · $9,500 this cycle

8.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$7,917

Annualized

72%

EV / cycle

+$2,808

If assigned

+$6,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.17/share ($11,703 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $14.87.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	43d	+$0.11	$0.02 to $0.07	69%	55%
Up And Out	$14.66	43d	+$0.04	$-0.05 to $0.00	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$14.66	43d	+$0.04	$-0.05 to $0.00	69%	56%
Safety Up	$18.66	43d	-$0.90	$-1.23 to $-1.05	89%	88%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-24 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.