MARA @ $13.02

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-11.7%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds2%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.04 · $400 this cycle

26.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

98%

Income / mo

$1,714

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$385

If assigned

+$17,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.65/share ($6,469 total).

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	14d	+$0.41	-	68%	53%
Up And Out	$17.48	14d	+$0.03	-	75%	67%
Ss Escape	$21.48	42d	+$0.05	-	86%	83%
Safety Up	$21.98	42d	-$0.02	-	87%	85%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $824 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.18 · $1,700 this cycle

11.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$7,286

Annualized

68%

EV / cycle

+$1,045

If assigned

-$824

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.52/share ($5,223 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $14.84.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	14d	+$0.33	$0.30 to $0.40	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.98	14d	+$0.13	$0.08 to $0.19	73%	62%
Ss Escape	$18.48	42d	+$0.04	$-0.10 to $0.11	86%	83%
Safety Up	$19.98	42d	-$0.15	$-0.33 to $-0.09	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$17.98	42d	+$0.11	$-0.02 to $0.18	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $8,424 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.41 / mid $0.42 · $4,100 this cycle

3.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$17,571

Annualized

164%

EV / cycle

+$1,330

If assigned

-$8,424

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.46/share ($4,649 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $13.83.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	14d	+$0.29	$0.23 to $0.28	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.98	14d	+$0.10	$0.01 to $0.07	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$16.98	42d	+$0.03	$-0.19 to $-0.04	85%	83%
Safety Up	$18.48	42d	-$0.16	$-0.42 to $-0.24	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$15.98	42d	+$0.21	$0.03 to $0.16	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.38 / mid $0.40 · $3,800 this cycle

26.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,257

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$1,756

If assigned

+$21,276

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.41/share ($14,113 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $16.90.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	42d	+$0.18	$0.13 to $0.26	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$16.48	42d	+$0.19	$0.14 to $0.27	69%	55%
Safety Up	$17.98	42d	-$0.37	$-0.46 to $-0.33	76%	68%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $19 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.18 · $1,700 this cycle

45.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,457

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$1,060

If assigned

+$44,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.79/share ($17,900 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 25 at spot $19.51.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$19.00	42d	+$0.22	$0.24 to $0.45	69%	55%
Up And Out	$19.48	42d	+$0.04	$0.03 to $0.23	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$19.48	42d	+$0.04	$0.03 to $0.23	71%	59%
Safety Up	$19.98	42d	-$0.15	$-0.19 to $0.03	73%	63%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,376 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.79 / mid $0.80 · $7,900 this cycle

11.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$6,771

Annualized

63%

EV / cycle

+$2,589

If assigned

+$5,376

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.14/share ($11,396 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 12 at spot $14.86.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	42d	+$0.15	$0.08 to $0.13	69%	54%
Ss Escape	$14.48	42d	+$0.15	$0.09 to $0.14	69%	54%
Safety Up	$17.98	42d	-$0.78	$-1.02 to $-0.87	87%	85%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-25 03:50 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.