MARA @ $12.63

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-14.4%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.03 / mid $0.04 · $300 this cycle

26.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,286

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$216

If assigned

+$12,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.55/share ($5,530 total).

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	14d	+$0.38	-	67%	53%
Up And Out	$16.87	14d	+$0.06	-	74%	66%
Ss Escape	$20.37	35d	+$0.00	-	85%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $6,024 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.15 · $1,500 this cycle

10.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$6,429

Annualized

62%

EV / cycle

+$664

If assigned

-$6,024

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.44/share ($4,424 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $14.33.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	14d	+$0.30	$0.29 to $0.37	67%	53%
Up And Out	$14.37	14d	+$0.15	$0.10 to $0.19	71%	60%
Ss Escape	$17.37	35d	+$0.01	$-0.10 to $0.05	85%	83%
Safety Up	$18.87	42d	-$0.13	$-0.27 to $-0.10	89%	87%
Reliable Up	$17.37	42d	+$0.09	$-0.02 to $0.13	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $10,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds28%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

2 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.23 / mid $0.24 · $2,300 this cycle

6.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

72%

Income / mo

$9,857

Annualized

95%

EV / cycle

+$711

If assigned

-$10,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.42/share ($4,166 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $13.82.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	14d	+$0.28	$0.25 to $0.33	67%	53%
Up And Out	$13.87	14d	+$0.13	$0.07 to $0.14	71%	61%
Ss Escape	$16.87	42d	+$0.05	$-0.10 to $0.04	84%	82%
Safety Up	$18.87	42d	-$0.18	$-0.39 to $-0.21	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$16.37	42d	+$0.14	$0.00 to $0.13	82%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.35 / mid $0.36 · $3,500 this cycle

26.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$3,000

Annualized

29%

EV / cycle

+$1,584

If assigned

+$15,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.30/share ($12,988 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $16.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	42d	+$0.14	$0.08 to $0.22	68%	55%
Ss Escape	$15.87	42d	+$0.19	$0.14 to $0.28	68%	54%
Safety Up	$16.87	42d	-$0.20	$-0.29 to $-0.15	72%	63%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.18 · $1,700 this cycle

42.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$1,457

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$972

If assigned

+$34,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.59/share ($15,857 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 24 at spot $18.45.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$18.00	42d	+$0.16	$0.14 to $0.38	68%	55%
Up And Out	$18.37	42d	+$0.01	$-0.03 to $0.20	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$18.37	42d	+$0.01	$-0.03 to $0.20	70%	58%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $324 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.72 / mid $0.74 · $7,200 this cycle

10.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$6,171

Annualized

59%

EV / cycle

+$2,037

If assigned

-$324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.04/share ($10,395 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 12 at spot $14.34.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	42d	+$0.11	$0.04 to $0.10	68%	54%
Ss Escape	$13.87	42d	+$0.17	$0.10 to $0.16	67%	53%
Safety Up	$16.87	42d	-$0.66	$-0.87 to $-0.74	84%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-25 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.