MARA @ $12.62

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-14.5%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.05 / mid $0.06 · $500 this cycle

30.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,364

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$354

If assigned

+$17,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.85/share ($8,528 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $16.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	18d	+$0.36	$0.44 to $0.60	69%	53%
Up And Out	$16.88	18d	+$0.19	$0.24 to $0.39	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$19.38	39d	+$0.09	$0.12 to $0.35	80%	75%
Safety Up	$19.38	32d	-$0.04	$-0.04 to $0.19	81%	77%
Reliable Up	$19.88	39d	-$0.02	$-0.02 to $0.23	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $524 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.21 · $2,000 this cycle

14.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$5,455

Annualized

53%

EV / cycle

+$1,003

If assigned

-$524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.69/share ($6,887 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $14.87.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	18d	+$0.29	$0.26 to $0.37	69%	53%
Up And Out	$14.88	18d	+$0.12	$0.07 to $0.18	72%	60%
Ss Escape	$16.88	39d	+$0.10	$-0.02 to $0.18	80%	75%
Safety Up	$17.38	32d	-$0.16	$-0.31 to $-0.10	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $8,424 (premium included).

Called-away odds32%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.41 / mid $0.42 · $4,100 this cycle

7.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

68%

Income / mo

$11,182

Annualized

108%

EV / cycle

+$1,448

If assigned

-$8,424

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.61/share ($6,130 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $13.84.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	18d	+$0.26	$0.20 to $0.28	69%	53%
Up And Out	$13.88	18d	+$0.09	$0.01 to $0.08	72%	60%
Ss Escape	$15.88	39d	+$0.03	$-0.15 to $-0.01	81%	77%
Safety Up	$18.38	39d	-$0.37	$-0.65 to $-0.44	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$14.88	39d	+$0.24	$0.09 to $0.23	76%	69%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $0.33 / mid $0.35 · $3,300 this cycle

26.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$3,094

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$1,653

If assigned

+$15,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.34/share ($13,401 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 18 at spot $16.39.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	39d	+$0.19	$0.14 to $0.27	69%	55%
Up And Out	$16.38	39d	+$0.00	$-0.07 to $0.06	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$16.38	39d	+$0.00	$-0.07 to $0.06	71%	59%
Safety Up	$16.88	39d	-$0.20	$-0.28 to $-0.16	73%	63%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.16 · $1,500 this cycle

42.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,406

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$936

If assigned

+$33,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.63/share ($16,342 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 22 at spot $18.48.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$18.00	39d	+$0.23	$0.22 to $0.42	69%	55%
Up And Out	$18.38	39d	+$0.03	$0.01 to $0.21	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$18.38	39d	+$0.03	$0.01 to $0.21	71%	58%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $324 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $0.72 / mid $0.74 · $7,200 this cycle

10.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$6,750

Annualized

65%

EV / cycle

+$2,377

If assigned

-$324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.07/share ($10,741 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $14.35.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	39d	+$0.16	$0.09 to $0.15	69%	54%
Ss Escape	$13.88	39d	+$0.21	$0.15 to $0.21	68%	53%
Safety Up	$16.88	39d	-$0.70	$-0.95 to $-0.79	85%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-28 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.