MARA @ $12.21

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-17.2%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 17 DTE · bid $0.07 / mid $0.08 · $700 this cycle

35.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,235

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$603

If assigned

+$18,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.05/share ($10,499 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 13 at spot $16.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	24d	+$0.31	$0.36 to $0.52	69%	54%
Up And Out	$16.79	24d	+$0.17	$0.20 to $0.37	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$18.29	38d	+$0.10	$0.12 to $0.36	76%	69%
Safety Up	$18.79	38d	-$0.04	$-0.03 to $0.22	78%	72%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,824 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.18 · $1,700 this cycle

14.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$5,100

Annualized

51%

EV / cycle

+$844

If assigned

-$5,824

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($6,259 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $14.35.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	17d	+$0.30	$0.28 to $0.41	69%	53%
Up And Out	$14.29	17d	+$0.17	$0.13 to $0.24	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$16.79	38d	+$0.02	$-0.10 to $0.10	82%	79%
Safety Up	$17.29	38d	-$0.11	$-0.26 to $-0.04	84%	81%
Reliable Up	$16.29	38d	+$0.08	$-0.04 to $0.16	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $13,624 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.39 / mid $0.40 · $3,900 this cycle

6.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$11,700

Annualized

117%

EV / cycle

+$1,382

If assigned

-$13,624

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.55/share ($5,549 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $13.32.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	17d	+$0.27	$0.22 to $0.29	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.29	17d	+$0.13	$0.06 to $0.13	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$15.29	38d	+$0.01	$-0.17 to $-0.03	81%	77%
Safety Up	$17.79	38d	-$0.34	$-0.62 to $-0.42	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$14.29	38d	+$0.26	$0.11 to $0.24	76%	69%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.37 / mid $0.39 · $3,700 this cycle

22.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$3,581

Annualized

36%

EV / cycle

+$1,735

If assigned

+$6,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.20/share ($11,978 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $15.34.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	38d	+$0.15	$0.10 to $0.21	69%	55%
Up And Out	$15.29	38d	+$0.03	$-0.04 to $0.07	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$15.29	38d	+$0.03	$-0.04 to $0.07	70%	58%
Safety Up	$16.29	38d	-$0.34	$-0.44 to $-0.32	75%	68%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.16 / mid $0.17 · $1,600 this cycle

39.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$1,548

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$936

If assigned

+$24,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.48/share ($14,793 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 21 at spot $17.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	38d	+$0.18	$0.17 to $0.36	69%	55%
Up And Out	$17.29	38d	+$0.06	$0.04 to $0.21	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$17.29	38d	+$0.06	$0.04 to $0.21	70%	58%
Safety Up	$17.79	38d	-$0.08	$-0.11 to $0.05	73%	62%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,624 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.69 / mid $0.71 · $6,900 this cycle

10.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$6,677

Annualized

67%

EV / cycle

+$2,357

If assigned

-$5,624

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.01/share ($10,054 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $13.82.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	38d	+$0.13	$0.06 to $0.11	69%	54%
Up And Out	$13.79	38d	+$0.01	$-0.08 to $-0.02	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$13.79	38d	+$0.01	$-0.08 to $-0.02	70%	58%
Safety Up	$16.29	38d	-$0.64	$-0.84 to $-0.72	85%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-29 21:49 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.