MARA @ $11.98

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-18.8%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 16 DTE · bid $0.08 / mid $0.08 · $800 this cycle

33.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,500

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$708

If assigned

+$13,276

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.97/share ($9,731 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 12 at spot $16.34.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	23d	+$0.31	$0.33 to $0.51	69%	54%
Up And Out	$16.52	23d	+$0.10	$0.10 to $0.27	72%	60%
Ss Escape	$18.52	37d	+$0.00	$-0.03 to $0.26	80%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $10,724 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.18 / mid $0.20 · $1,800 this cycle

12.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$6,000

Annualized

61%

EV / cycle

+$954

If assigned

-$10,724

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.56/share ($5,597 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $13.81.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	16d	+$0.30	$0.26 to $0.37	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.02	16d	+$0.08	$0.03 to $0.12	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$16.52	37d	+$0.00	$-0.12 to $0.05	84%	81%
Safety Up	$17.52	37d	-$0.18	$-0.34 to $-0.14	88%	86%
Reliable Up	$16.02	37d	+$0.09	$-0.02 to $0.15	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $18,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.43 / mid $0.44 · $4,300 this cycle

4.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$14,333

Annualized

146%

EV / cycle

+$1,530

If assigned

-$18,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.49/share ($4,931 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $12.83.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	16d	+$0.26	$0.20 to $0.25	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.02	16d	+$0.05	$-0.04 to $0.02	73%	64%
Ss Escape	$15.02	37d	+$0.02	$-0.17 to $-0.05	83%	80%
Safety Up	$17.02	37d	-$0.25	$-0.51 to $-0.34	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$14.02	37d	+$0.25	$0.11 to $0.20	78%	72%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.32 / mid $0.33 · $3,200 this cycle

25.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$3,200

Annualized

32%

EV / cycle

+$1,667

If assigned

+$5,676

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.19/share ($11,916 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $15.37.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	37d	+$0.21	$0.18 to $0.30	69%	55%
Up And Out	$15.02	37d	+$0.20	$0.17 to $0.29	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$15.02	37d	+$0.20	$0.17 to $0.29	69%	55%
Safety Up	$16.02	37d	-$0.18	$-0.24 to $-0.14	75%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 37 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.17 · $1,500 this cycle

50.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,216

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$978

If assigned

+$33,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $10,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.73 / mid $0.74 · $7,300 this cycle

8.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$7,300

Annualized

74%

EV / cycle

+$2,363

If assigned

-$10,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.94/share ($9,388 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $13.31.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	37d	+$0.17	$0.11 to $0.15	69%	54%
Up And Out	$13.02	37d	+$0.16	$0.11 to $0.14	69%	54%
Ss Escape	$13.02	37d	+$0.16	$0.11 to $0.14	69%	54%
Safety Up	$16.52	37d	-$0.70	$-0.94 to $-0.80	89%	88%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-30 03:50 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.