MARA @ $11.81

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-19.9%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds6%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.05 / mid $0.06 · $500 this cycle

27.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

94%

Income / mo

$1,667

Annualized

17%

EV / cycle

+$362

If assigned

+$2,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.69/share ($6,943 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $15.39.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	16d	+$0.34	$0.39 to $0.53	68%	53%
Up And Out	$15.69	16d	+$0.05	$0.04 to $0.19	73%	64%
Ss Escape	$18.19	37d	+$0.04	$0.01 to $0.24	82%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $11,024 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.16 · $1,500 this cycle

14.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$5,000

Annualized

52%

EV / cycle

+$777

If assigned

-$11,024

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.58/share ($5,833 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $13.85.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	16d	+$0.28	$0.25 to $0.37	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.69	16d	+$0.19	$0.15 to $0.26	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$16.19	37d	+$0.01	$-0.13 to $0.07	82%	79%
Safety Up	$16.69	37d	-$0.07	$-0.22 to $-0.01	84%	82%
Reliable Up	$15.69	37d	+$0.10	$-0.03 to $0.16	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $18,924 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.36 / mid $0.38 · $3,600 this cycle

5.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$12,000

Annualized

124%

EV / cycle

+$1,265

If assigned

-$18,924

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.51/share ($5,145 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $12.81.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	16d	+$0.25	$0.19 to $0.25	68%	53%
Up And Out	$12.69	16d	+$0.16	$0.09 to $0.15	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$14.69	37d	+$0.03	$-0.15 to $-0.02	81%	77%
Safety Up	$17.19	37d	-$0.29	$-0.55 to $-0.37	91%	91%
Reliable Up	$14.19	37d	+$0.14	$-0.02 to $0.10	79%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.12 / mid $0.13 · $1,200 this cycle

43.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,200

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$758

If assigned

+$23,676

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.51/share ($15,069 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 22 at spot $17.38.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	37d	+$0.15	$0.17 to $0.39	69%	55%
Up And Out	$17.19	37d	+$0.07	$0.08 to $0.30	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$17.19	37d	+$0.07	$0.08 to $0.30	70%	57%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $876 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.34 / mid $0.35 · $3,400 this cycle

22.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$3,400

Annualized

35%

EV / cycle

+$1,568

If assigned

+$876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.15/share ($11,520 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $14.88.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	37d	+$0.12	$0.06 to $0.19	69%	55%
Up And Out	$14.69	37d	+$0.04	$-0.03 to $0.10	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$14.69	37d	+$0.04	$-0.03 to $0.10	70%	57%
Safety Up	$15.69	37d	-$0.25	$-0.33 to $-0.22	76%	68%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $10,824 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.67 / mid $0.69 · $6,700 this cycle

10.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$6,700

Annualized

69%

EV / cycle

+$2,274

If assigned

-$10,824

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.96/share ($9,611 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $13.33.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	37d	+$0.10	$0.02 to $0.08	68%	54%
Up And Out	$13.19	37d	+$0.02	$-0.07 to $-0.00	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$13.19	37d	+$0.02	$-0.07 to $-0.00	70%	57%
Safety Up	$15.69	37d	-$0.63	$-0.85 to $-0.71	85%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-30 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.