If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.51/share ($5,090 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $13.30.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $13.00 | 15d | +$0.29 | $0.26 to $0.36 | 68% | 53% |
| Up And Out | $13.48 | 15d | +$0.08 | $0.03 to $0.14 | 73% | 63% |
| Ss Escape | $15.48 | 36d | +$0.05 | $-0.07 to $0.12 | 82% | 79% |
| Safety Up | $15.98 | 29d | -$0.15 | $-0.28 to $-0.09 | 87% | 85% |
| Reliable Up | $14.98 | 36d | +$0.15 | $0.04 to $0.23 | 80% | 75% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.