MARA @ $11.27

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-23.6%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $20,924 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.16 / mid $0.17 · $1,600 this cycle

10.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$6,000

Annualized

65%

EV / cycle

+$855

If assigned

-$20,924

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.46/share ($4,579 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $12.81.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	15d	+$0.27	$0.25 to $0.32	68%	53%
Up And Out	$12.73	15d	+$0.17	$0.13 to $0.20	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$15.73	43d	+$0.01	$-0.13 to $0.03	85%	82%
Safety Up	$16.73	43d	-$0.13	$-0.29 to $-0.13	88%	87%
Reliable Up	$15.23	43d	+$0.09	$-0.04 to $0.11	83%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $7,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds3%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.04 · $400 this cycle

24.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

97%

Income / mo

$1,500

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$360

If assigned

-$7,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.55/share ($5,533 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $14.28.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	15d	+$0.33	$0.36 to $0.48	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.73	15d	+$0.04	$0.04 to $0.17	74%	65%
Ss Escape	$17.73	43d	+$0.03	$0.01 to $0.22	84%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $24,924 (premium included).

Called-away odds30%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.26 / mid $0.27 · $2,600 this cycle

6.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

70%

Income / mo

$9,750

Annualized

105%

EV / cycle

+$976

If assigned

-$24,924

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.43/share ($4,280 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $12.29.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.00	15d	+$0.26	$0.21 to $0.27	68%	53%
Up And Out	$12.23	15d	+$0.15	$0.10 to $0.15	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$14.73	43d	+$0.05	$-0.12 to $0.03	83%	80%
Safety Up	$16.73	43d	-$0.20	$-0.42 to $-0.24	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$14.23	43d	+$0.15	$0.01 to $0.14	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.18 · $1,400 this cycle

42.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$1,167

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$730

If assigned

+$13,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.56/share ($15,606 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 24 at spot $16.37.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	43d	+$0.12	$0.09 to $0.31	69%	55%
Up And Out	$16.23	43d	+$0.02	$-0.01 to $0.21	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$16.23	43d	+$0.02	$-0.01 to $0.21	70%	57%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $1,076 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 43 DTE · bid $0.36 / mid $0.42 · $3,600 this cycle

28.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$2,512

Annualized

27%

EV / cycle

+$1,475

If assigned

+$1,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $16,024 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.65 / mid $0.71 · $6,500 this cycle

10.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$5,417

Annualized

58%

EV / cycle

+$1,848

If assigned

-$16,024

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.03/share ($10,316 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 13 at spot $12.81.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	43d	+$0.08	$0.00 to $0.06	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$12.23	43d	+$0.19	$0.11 to $0.18	67%	51%
Safety Up	$14.73	43d	-$0.61	$-0.82 to $-0.69	83%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-10-01 21:49 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.