MARA @ $11.13

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-24.6%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $21,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds14%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.12 / mid $0.12 · $1,200 this cycle

12.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

86%

Income / mo

$5,143

Annualized

56%

EV / cycle

+$780

If assigned

-$21,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.44/share ($4,363 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $12.77.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	14d	+$0.30	$0.29 to $0.38	69%	53%
Up And Out	$12.87	14d	+$0.14	$0.10 to $0.19	73%	61%
Ss Escape	$16.37	42d	+$0.02	$-0.07 to $0.09	89%	87%
Safety Up	$16.87	42d	-$0.04	$-0.14 to $0.02	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$15.87	42d	+$0.09	$0.01 to $0.16	87%	85%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $7,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.03 / mid $0.04 · $300 this cycle

25.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,286

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$243

If assigned

-$7,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.53/share ($5,298 total).

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	14d	+$0.36	-	69%	53%
Up And Out	$14.87	14d	+$0.02	-	76%	68%
Ss Escape	$18.37	42d	+$0.14	-	89%	86%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $29,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds38%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.34 / mid $0.35 · $3,400 this cycle

3.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

62%

Income / mo

$14,571

Annualized

159%

EV / cycle

+$1,234

If assigned

-$29,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.38/share ($3,789 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $11.77.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$11.50	14d	+$0.26	$0.21 to $0.26	69%	53%
Up And Out	$11.87	14d	+$0.10	$0.02 to $0.08	73%	62%
Ss Escape	$14.37	42d	+$0.06	$-0.10 to $0.02	87%	84%
Safety Up	$15.37	42d	-$0.07	$-0.26 to $-0.13	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$13.87	42d	+$0.14	$-0.00 to $0.10	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.17 · $1,400 this cycle

43.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,200

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$808

If assigned

+$13,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.51/share ($15,138 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 25 at spot $16.39.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	42d	+$0.17	$0.17 to $0.37	69%	55%
Up And Out	$16.37	42d	+$0.01	$0.00 to $0.19	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$16.37	42d	+$0.01	$0.00 to $0.19	71%	59%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $3,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.43 / mid $0.45 · $4,300 this cycle

25.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,071

Annualized

34%

EV / cycle

+$2,542

If assigned

-$3,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $16,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds32%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.60 / mid $0.64 · $6,000 this cycle

12.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

68%

Income / mo

$5,143

Annualized

56%

EV / cycle

+$1,850

If assigned

-$16,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.00/share ($9,988 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 13 at spot $12.81.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	42d	+$0.12	$0.05 to $0.11	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$12.37	42d	+$0.17	$0.10 to $0.16	68%	53%
Safety Up	$14.87	42d	-$0.58	$-0.72 to $-0.64	85%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-10-02 03:50 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.