MARA @ $12.09

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-18.0%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.03 / mid $0.04 · $300 this cycle

28.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,286

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$229

If assigned

+$7,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.58/share ($5,815 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $15.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.50	14d	+$0.41	$0.47 to $0.56	68%	53%
Up And Out	$16.41	14d	+$0.06	$0.03 to $0.18	75%	67%
Ss Escape	$21.41	42d	+$0.00	$-0.06 to $0.18	89%	87%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $11,024 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.16 · $1,500 this cycle

11.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$6,429

Annualized

65%

EV / cycle

+$790

If assigned

-$11,024

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.46/share ($4,616 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $13.81.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	14d	+$0.33	$0.32 to $0.41	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.91	14d	+$0.15	$0.10 to $0.20	72%	61%
Ss Escape	$17.41	42d	+$0.00	$-0.12 to $0.05	86%	84%
Safety Up	$19.41	42d	-$0.15	$-0.30 to $-0.11	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$16.91	42d	+$0.08	$-0.03 to $0.15	84%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $15,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds26%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.23 / mid $0.24 · $2,300 this cycle

7.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

74%

Income / mo

$9,857

Annualized

99%

EV / cycle

+$923

If assigned

-$15,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.43/share ($4,337 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $13.31.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	14d	+$0.31	$0.27 to $0.36	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.41	14d	+$0.13	$0.07 to $0.14	72%	62%
Ss Escape	$16.41	42d	+$0.05	$-0.11 to $0.05	85%	83%
Safety Up	$17.91	42d	-$0.14	$-0.34 to $-0.15	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$15.91	42d	+$0.13	$-0.01 to $0.14	83%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.41 / mid $0.47 · $4,100 this cycle

28.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$2,929

Annualized

29%

EV / cycle

+$1,681

If assigned

+$11,576

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.18 · $1,400 this cycle

44.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,200

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$752

If assigned

+$28,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.75/share ($17,523 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 23 at spot $17.93.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.50	42d	+$0.15	$0.13 to $0.32	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$17.41	42d	+$0.19	$0.17 to $0.36	69%	55%
Safety Up	$17.91	42d	-$0.04	$-0.08 to $0.10	71%	59%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.72 / mid $0.77 · $7,200 this cycle

11.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$6,171

Annualized

62%

EV / cycle

+$2,211

If assigned

-$5,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.14/share ($11,386 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 12 at spot $13.83.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	42d	+$0.10	$0.02 to $0.08	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$13.41	42d	+$0.14	$0.06 to $0.12	69%	53%
Safety Up	$15.91	42d	-$0.66	$-0.88 to $-0.75	83%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-10-02 21:49 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.