MARA @ $10.87

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-26.3%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $21,024 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.16 · $1,500 this cycle

15.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$4,091

Annualized

46%

EV / cycle

+$707

If assigned

-$21,024

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.55/share ($5,509 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $12.82.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	18d	+$0.24	$0.21 to $0.31	68%	53%
Up And Out	$12.63	18d	+$0.18	$0.14 to $0.24	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$15.13	39d	+$0.01	$-0.09 to $0.08	83%	79%
Safety Up	$16.13	39d	-$0.14	$-0.27 to $-0.08	87%	85%
Reliable Up	$14.63	39d	+$0.12	$0.02 to $0.19	80%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $7,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds6%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.05 · $400 this cycle

28.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

94%

Income / mo

$1,091

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$245

If assigned

-$7,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.66/share ($6,649 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $14.37.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	18d	+$0.29	$0.33 to $0.47	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.63	18d	+$0.04	$0.04 to $0.16	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$17.13	39d	+$0.03	$0.01 to $0.21	82%	79%
Safety Up	$17.63	39d	-$0.04	$-0.07 to $0.14	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $28,924 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.36 / mid $0.37 · $3,600 this cycle

5.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$9,818

Annualized

110%

EV / cycle

+$1,068

If assigned

-$28,924

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.48/share ($4,806 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $11.79.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$11.50	18d	+$0.21	$0.16 to $0.21	68%	53%
Up And Out	$11.63	18d	+$0.14	$0.09 to $0.14	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$13.63	39d	+$0.04	$-0.10 to $-0.01	82%	78%
Safety Up	$15.63	39d	-$0.24	$-0.45 to $-0.31	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$13.13	39d	+$0.15	$0.03 to $0.11	79%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.15 · $1,400 this cycle

51.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,077

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$911

If assigned

+$18,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $9,424 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $0.31 / mid $0.34 · $3,100 this cycle

24.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$2,906

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$1,437

If assigned

-$9,424

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.10/share ($11,050 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $13.82.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	39d	+$0.18	$0.14 to $0.24	69%	55%
Up And Out	$13.63	39d	+$0.12	$0.08 to $0.17	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$13.63	39d	+$0.12	$0.08 to $0.17	70%	56%
Safety Up	$14.63	39d	-$0.25	$-0.33 to $-0.23	75%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $19,924 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.76 / mid $0.79 · $7,600 this cycle

10.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$5,846

Annualized

65%

EV / cycle

+$2,140

If assigned

-$19,924

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-10-05 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.