MARA @ $11.23

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-23.9%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $16,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds14%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.12 / mid $0.12 · $1,200 this cycle

15.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

86%

Income / mo

$3,600

Annualized

39%

EV / cycle

+$640

If assigned

-$16,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.54/share ($5,386 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $13.34.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	17d	+$0.26	$0.27 to $0.36	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.27	17d	+$0.14	$0.13 to $0.23	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$15.77	38d	+$0.02	$-0.07 to $0.10	83%	80%
Safety Up	$16.77	45d	-$0.02	$-0.13 to $0.05	86%	84%
Reliable Up	$15.77	45d	+$0.15	$0.06 to $0.23	82%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $2,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.04 · $400 this cycle

29.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,200

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$269

If assigned

-$2,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.64/share ($6,425 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 8 at spot $14.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	17d	+$0.32	$0.40 to $0.51	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.77	17d	+$0.20	$0.26 to $0.38	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$18.27	45d	+$0.12	$0.12 to $0.34	84%	81%
Reliable Up	$19.27	45d	-$0.04	$-0.08 to $0.17	87%	84%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $24,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds31%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.30 / mid $0.31 · $3,000 this cycle

6.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

69%

Income / mo

$9,000

Annualized

98%

EV / cycle

+$1,070

If assigned

-$24,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.47/share ($4,741 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $12.32.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.00	17d	+$0.23	$0.20 to $0.26	68%	53%
Up And Out	$12.27	17d	+$0.11	$0.07 to $0.12	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$14.77	45d	+$0.05	$-0.08 to $0.03	84%	81%
Safety Up	$16.77	45d	-$0.20	$-0.40 to $-0.25	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$13.77	45d	+$0.26	$0.15 to $0.26	79%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.16 · $1,500 this cycle

46.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,184

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$927

If assigned

+$18,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.63/share ($16,313 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 26 at spot $16.90.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	45d	+$0.23	$0.24 to $0.40	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$16.27	45d	+$0.31	$0.33 to $0.50	69%	54%
Safety Up	$17.27	45d	-$0.10	$-0.11 to $0.05	73%	62%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $4,724 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.28 / mid $0.31 · $2,800 this cycle

24.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$2,710

Annualized

29%

EV / cycle

+$951

If assigned

-$4,724

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.10/share ($11,042 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $14.38.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	38d	+$0.20	$0.18 to $0.27	69%	55%
Up And Out	$14.27	38d	+$0.07	$0.04 to $0.13	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$14.77	45d	+$0.08	$0.03 to $0.15	73%	63%
Safety Up	$15.77	45d	-$0.24	$-0.33 to $-0.20	78%	72%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $15,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.72 / mid $0.74 · $7,200 this cycle

11.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$5,684

Annualized

62%

EV / cycle

+$2,074

If assigned

-$15,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.03/share ($10,278 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 12 at spot $12.82.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	45d	+$0.14	$0.09 to $0.13	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$12.27	45d	+$0.24	$0.19 to $0.23	68%	51%
Safety Up	$15.27	45d	-$0.66	$-0.85 to $-0.74	86%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-10-06 21:49 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.