MARA @ $9.98

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-32.3%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $11 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $36,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $11 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.12 / mid $0.13 · $1,200 this cycle

10.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$4,500

Annualized

55%

EV / cycle

+$532

If assigned

-$36,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.37/share ($3,733 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $11.25.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$11.00	15d	+$0.20	$0.17 to $0.25	67%	53%
Up And Out	$11.52	15d	+$0.00	$-0.06 to $0.02	74%	66%
Ss Escape	$14.02	43d	+$0.01	$-0.10 to $0.03	86%	84%
Safety Up	$15.02	43d	-$0.09	$-0.22 to $-0.08	90%	88%
Reliable Up	$13.02	43d	+$0.19	$0.11 to $0.23	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $22,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.03 / mid $0.04 · $300 this cycle

25.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,125

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$219

If assigned

-$22,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.47/share ($4,655 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $12.78.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	15d	+$0.25	$0.28 to $0.38	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.02	15d	+$0.05	$0.04 to $0.16	73%	64%
Ss Escape	$16.52	43d	+$0.01	$-0.00 to $0.16	87%	85%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $10 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $40,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds32%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $10 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.23 / mid $0.24 · $2,300 this cycle

5.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

68%

Income / mo

$8,625

Annualized

105%

EV / cycle

+$750

If assigned

-$40,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.34/share ($3,448 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $10.72.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$10.50	15d	+$0.18	$0.14 to $0.19	67%	53%
Up And Out	$10.52	15d	+$0.18	$0.13 to $0.18	67%	53%
Ss Escape	$12.52	36d	+$0.04	$-0.08 to $0.01	83%	80%
Safety Up	$14.52	43d	-$0.12	$-0.28 to $-0.16	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$12.52	43d	+$0.14	$0.03 to $0.12	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $19,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.30 / mid $0.31 · $3,000 this cycle

25.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$2,500

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$1,340

If assigned

-$19,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.04/share ($10,365 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $12.81.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	43d	+$0.15	$0.12 to $0.20	69%	55%
Up And Out	$12.52	43d	+$0.14	$0.11 to $0.20	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$12.52	43d	+$0.14	$0.11 to $0.20	69%	55%
Safety Up	$13.52	43d	-$0.23	$-0.29 to $-0.21	75%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $1,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.13 / mid $0.14 · $1,300 this cycle

45.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,083

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$819

If assigned

-$1,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.34/share ($13,350 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 24 at spot $14.82.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	43d	+$0.19	$0.20 to $0.33	70%	55%
Up And Out	$14.52	43d	+$0.18	$0.19 to $0.32	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$14.52	43d	+$0.18	$0.19 to $0.32	70%	55%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $11 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $31,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $11 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.60 / mid $0.61 · $6,000 this cycle

10.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$5,000

Annualized

61%

EV / cycle

+$1,767

If assigned

-$31,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.84/share ($8,366 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $11.26.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$11.00	43d	+$0.12	$0.08 to $0.11	69%	54%
Up And Out	$11.02	43d	+$0.11	$0.07 to $0.10	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$11.02	43d	+$0.11	$0.07 to $0.10	69%	55%
Safety Up	$13.02	43d	-$0.48	$-0.62 to $-0.54	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-10-08 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.