MARA @ $10.03

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-32.0%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $11 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $36,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $11 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.13 / mid $0.14 · $1,300 this cycle

9.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$5,571

Annualized

68%

EV / cycle

+$777

If assigned

-$36,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.38/share ($3,778 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $11.25.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$11.00	14d	+$0.22	$0.19 to $0.27	68%	53%
Up And Out	$11.47	14d	+$0.02	$-0.05 to $0.05	75%	65%
Ss Escape	$13.97	42d	+$0.02	$-0.10 to $0.05	86%	84%
Safety Up	$14.97	42d	-$0.09	$-0.24 to $-0.08	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$12.97	42d	+$0.19	$0.09 to $0.23	82%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $27,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.03 / mid $0.04 · $300 this cycle

19.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,286

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$221

If assigned

-$27,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.44/share ($4,386 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $12.25.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.00	14d	+$0.26	$0.27 to $0.37	69%	53%
Up And Out	$12.47	14d	+$0.05	$0.03 to $0.16	74%	64%
Ss Escape	$14.97	35d	+$0.01	$-0.05 to $0.14	87%	84%
Safety Up	$15.97	42d	-$0.02	$-0.09 to $0.12	88%	86%
Reliable Up	$14.97	42d	+$0.11	$0.07 to $0.26	85%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $10 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $40,024 (premium included).

Called-away odds32%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $10 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.25 / mid $0.26 · $2,500 this cycle

4.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

68%

Income / mo

$10,714

Annualized

130%

EV / cycle

+$1,071

If assigned

-$40,024

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.35/share ($3,490 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $10.73.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$10.50	14d	+$0.20	$0.15 to $0.21	68%	52%
Up And Out	$10.97	14d	+$0.00	$-0.08 to $-0.01	75%	66%
Ss Escape	$12.47	35d	+$0.04	$-0.09 to $0.01	84%	80%
Safety Up	$14.47	42d	-$0.12	$-0.30 to $-0.17	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$12.47	42d	+$0.14	$0.01 to $0.12	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $19,624 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.29 / mid $0.31 · $2,900 this cycle

24.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$2,486

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$1,655

If assigned

-$19,624

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.06/share ($10,609 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $12.79.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	42d	+$0.14	$0.11 to $0.20	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$12.47	42d	+$0.15	$0.12 to $0.22	69%	54%
Safety Up	$13.47	42d	-$0.24	$-0.30 to $-0.21	76%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $1,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds6%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.12 / mid $0.13 · $1,200 this cycle

44.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

94%

Income / mo

$1,029

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$988

If assigned

-$1,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.37/share ($13,663 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 24 at spot $14.84.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	42d	+$0.18	$0.18 to $0.34	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$14.47	42d	+$0.19	$0.19 to $0.35	70%	55%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $11 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $31,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $11 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.62 / mid $0.64 · $6,200 this cycle

9.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$5,314

Annualized

64%

EV / cycle

+$2,261

If assigned

-$31,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.86/share ($8,564 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $11.26.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$11.00	42d	+$0.12	$0.07 to $0.10	69%	54%
Ss Escape	$10.97	42d	+$0.13	$0.08 to $0.11	69%	54%
Safety Up	$12.97	42d	-$0.51	$-0.66 to $-0.57	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-10-09 03:50 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.