If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $8.99/share ($2,697 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $199.38.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $195.00 | 22d | +$3.13 | $3.23 to $4.92 | 69% | 53% |
| Up And Out | $200.72 | 22d | +$0.75 | $0.70 to $2.39 | 72% | 61% |
| Ss Escape | $220.72 | 36d | +$0.33 | $-0.12 to $2.48 | 80% | 74% |
| Safety Up | $225.72 | 36d | -$0.76 | $-1.36 to $1.27 | 82% | 77% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.