If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.87/share ($2,868 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $71.21.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $69.00 | 15d | +$1.62 | $1.37 to $1.86 | 67% | 53% |
| Up And Out | $73.85 | 15d | +$0.04 | $-0.56 to $0.07 | 74% | 67% |
| Ss Escape | $80.85 | 36d | +$0.18 | $-0.73 to $0.28 | 80% | 76% |
| Safety Up | $87.85 | 36d | -$0.85 | $-1.95 to $-0.84 | 86% | 84% |
| Reliable Up | $73.85 | 29d | +$0.64 | $-0.18 to $0.79 | 72% | 65% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.