If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $5.86/share ($5,856 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $106.73.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $103.00 | 15d | +$0.86 | $0.83 to $2.59 | 68% | 53% |
| Up And Out | $104.72 | 15d | +$0.11 | $-0.13 to $1.74 | 70% | 57% |
| Ss Escape | $117.72 | 43d | +$0.04 | $-0.75 to $1.92 | 79% | 73% |
| Reliable Up | $112.72 | 43d | +$1.49 | $0.91 to $3.47 | 76% | 68% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.