If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.43/share ($2,432 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $79.56.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $78.00 | 15d | +$0.99 | $0.70 to $1.30 | 67% | 52% |
| Up And Out | $79.35 | 15d | +$0.42 | $0.06 to $0.65 | 70% | 58% |
| Ss Escape | $87.35 | 36d | +$0.47 | $-0.24 to $0.68 | 80% | 75% |
| Safety Up | $92.35 | 36d | -$0.63 | $-1.55 to $-0.46 | 85% | 83% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.